An Intrinsic Calculation For Nanofilm Technologies International Limited (SGX:MZH) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Nanofilm Technologies International Limited (SGX:MZH) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued
Key Insights
關鍵見解
- The projected fair value for Nanofilm Technologies International is S$2.14 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Nanofilm Technologies International is estimated to be 26% undervalued based on current share price of S$1.59
- The S$1.34 analyst price target for MZH is 37% less than our estimate of fair value
- 根據兩階段自由現金流轉股權,Nanofilm Technologies International的預計公允價值爲2.14新元
- 根據目前1.59新元的股價,Nanofilm Technologies International的估值估計被低估了26%
- 分析師對MZH的1.34新元目標股價比我們對公允價值的估計低37%
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Nanofilm Technologies International Limited (SGX:MZH) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
在本文中,我們將通過估算公司未來的現金流並將其折現爲現值來估算Nanofilm Technologies International Limited(SGX: MZH)的內在價值。這將使用貼現現金流 (DCF) 模型來完成。不要被行話拖延了,它背後的數學其實很簡單。
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我們要提醒的是,對公司進行估值的方法有很多,就像DCF一樣,每種技術在某些情況下都有優點和缺點。任何有興趣進一步瞭解內在價值的人都應該讀一讀 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
See our latest analysis for Nanofilm Technologies International
查看我們對納諾菲爾姆科技國際的最新分析
The Model
該模型
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們將使用兩階段的DCF模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是較高的增長期,在第二個 “穩步增長” 時期逐漸趨於平穩,最終值是第二個 “穩定增長” 時期。在第一階段,我們需要估算未來十年的業務現金流。在可能的情況下,我們會使用分析師的估計值,但是當這些估計值不可用時,我們會從最新的估計值或報告的價值中推斷出之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩其萎縮速度,而自由現金流不斷增長的公司在此期間的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期增長的放緩幅度往往比後來的幾年更大。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
通常,我們假設今天的一美元比未來一美元更有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行折價才能得出現值估計:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (SGD, Millions) | S$16.4m | S$23.1m | S$39.4m | S$52.9m | S$66.0m | S$77.7m | S$87.9m | S$96.4m | S$103.5m | S$109.5m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 34.33% | Est @ 24.62% | Est @ 17.82% | Est @ 13.06% | Est @ 9.73% | Est @ 7.40% | Est @ 5.77% |
Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5% | S$15.3 | S$19.9 | S$31.7 | S$39.6 | S$45.9 | S$50.3 | S$52.9 | S$54.0 | S$53.9 | S$53.0 |
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF(新加坡元,百萬) | 1640 萬新元 | 2310 萬新元 | 3,940 萬新元 | 5290 萬新元 | 6600 萬新元 | 7,770 萬新元 | 8790 萬新元 | 9640 萬新元 | 1.035 億新元 | 1.095 億新元 |
增長率估算來源 | 分析師 x2 | 分析師 x2 | 分析師 x2 | Est @ 34.33% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 24.62% | Est @ 17.82% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 13.06% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 9.73% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 7.40% | Est @ 5.77% |
現值(新加坡元,百萬元)折扣價 @ 7.5% | 15.3 新元 | 19.9 新元 | 31.7 S.7 | 39.6 新元 | S45.9 | 50.3 美元 | 52.9 新元 | 54.0 新元 | 53.9 S53.9 | 53.0 美元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$416m
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10年期現金流(PVCF)的現值 = 4.16 億新元
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.5%.
第二階段也稱爲終端價值,這是第一階段之後的企業現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率2.0%的5年平均水平。我們將終端現金流折現爲今天的價值,權益成本爲7.5%。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$110m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.5%– 2.0%) = S$2.0b
終端價值 (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 1.1億新元× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.5% — 2.0%) = 20億新元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$2.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)10= S$971m
終端價值的現值 (PVTV)= 電視/ (1 + r)10= 2.0bb÷ (1 + 7.5%)10= 9.71 億新元
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is S$1.4b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of S$1.6, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
因此,總價值或權益價值是未來現金流現值的總和,在本例中爲14億新元。最後一步是將股票價值除以已發行股票的數量。與目前的1.6新元股價相比,該公司的估值似乎略有低估,比目前的股價折扣了26%。但是,估值是不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣——移動幾度然後進入另一個星系。請記住這一點。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/pic/0-c8f68c723d7a8a6eaafdb87b94408480-0-9f66ffe89c1ef68d7502de6ab5484701.png/big)
The Assumptions
假設
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Nanofilm Technologies International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.937. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我們要指出,貼現現金流的最重要投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,那就自己去計算一下,試試假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面描述公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將Nanofilm Technologies International視爲潛在股東,因此使用股權成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了 7.5%,這是基於 0.937 的槓桿測試值。與整個市場相比,Beta是衡量股票波動率的指標。我們的測試值來自全球可比公司的行業平均測試值,施加的限制在0.8到2.0之間,對於穩定的業務而言,這是一個合理的範圍。
SWOT Analysis for Nanofilm Technologies International
國際納米薄膜技術的 SWOT 分析
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- 債務不被視爲風險。
- Balance sheet summary for MZH.
- MZH 的資產負債表摘要。
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- 在過去的一年中,收益有所下降。
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Chemicals market.
- 與化工市場前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market.
- 預計年收入的增長速度將快於新加坡市場。
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- 交易價格比我們估計的公允價值低20%以上。
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
- 預計收入每年增長將低於20%。
- What else are analysts forecasting for MZH?
- 分析師對MZH還有甚麼預測?
Moving On:
繼續前進:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Nanofilm Technologies International, we've compiled three relevant elements you should further examine:
就建立投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,理想情況下,它不會是你爲公司仔細審查的唯一分析結果。DCF 模型不是投資估值的萬能之計。最好你應用不同的案例和假設,看看它們將如何影響公司的估值。例如,公司股本成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。我們能否弄清楚爲甚麼公司的交易價格低於內在價值?對於Nanofilm Technologies International,我們整理了三個相關內容,你應該進一步研究
- Financial Health: Does MZH have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for MZH's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 財務健康: MZH 的資產負債表健康嗎?看看我們的免費資產負債表分析,對槓桿率和風險等關鍵因素進行六次簡單檢查。
- 管理:內部人士是否在提高股價,以利用市場對MZH未來前景的情緒?查看我們的管理層和董事會分析,瞭解有關首席執行官薪酬和治理因素的見解。
- 其他高質量的替代品: 你喜歡一個優秀的全能選手嗎?瀏覽我們的高品質股票互動清單,瞭解您可能還缺少甚麼!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都會更新每隻新加坡股票的差價合約計算方法,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,請在此處搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂? 取得聯繫 直接和我們聯繫。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是一般性的。 我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章無意提供財務建議。 它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未將最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。簡而言之,華爾街對上述任何股票都沒有頭寸。