Brexit Uncertainty For Investors Persists
Brexit Uncertainty For Investors Persists
By Bill Witherell, Ph.DSummary
摘要
By Bill Witherell, Ph.D
作者：比爾·威瑟雷爾(Bill Witherell)，博士
The exceptional Saturday session of the United Kingdom's Parliament, the first in 37 years, was expected to produce a decisive "yes" or "no" vote on the new Brexit deal Prime Minister Boris Johnson had negotiated with the European Union (EU). October 19 was the final day for Parliament to agree to a deal before the Prime Minister would be required to request an extension from the EU beyond the current date of October 31. To the government's apparent surprise, an amendment was proposed and passed (322 to 306) stipulating that Johnson's deal could be approved only when all the legislation implementing the withdrawal is passed. So, no vote on the deal was possible.
英國議會週六的特別會議是37年來的首次，預計將對首相鮑里斯·約翰遜(Boris Johnson)與歐盟(EU)談判達成的新英國退歐協議投下決定性的贊成票或反對票。10月19日是議會同意協議的最後一天，之後首相將被要求向歐盟申請將協議延長至目前的10月31日之後。令政府明顯驚訝的是，提出並通過了一項修正案(322票對306票)，規定約翰遜的交易只有在所有實施撤軍的立法獲得通過後才能獲得批准。因此，不可能對該協議進行投票。
Johnson reiterated his position: "I will not negotiate a delay." But as he was required by law, he sent a letter to the EU requesting a three-month delay. He did not sign the letter, and sent an additional letter recommending that the EU not grant the requested extension. This maneuver will certainly be reviewed by one or more courts. In any event, the EU considered the request made and is very likely to grant the extension to limit the possibility of a no-deal hard exit of the UK from the EU.
約翰遜重申了他的立場：“我不會就延期進行談判。”但根據法律的要求，他向歐盟發出了一封信，要求推遲三個月。他沒有在信上簽字，並另外發了一封信，建議歐盟不要批准請求的延期。這一行動肯定會得到一個或多個法院的審查。無論如何，歐盟考慮了這一請求，並很有可能批准延期，以限制英國無法達成協議硬退出歐盟的可能性。
As this is being written, there remain a number of possible Brexit outcomes. Johnson is expected to be able to have the deal voted on in the next several days, unless Commons Speaker John Bercow does not allow a rerun of the vote. A vote on the deal would likely be close, but it could pass. If so, Brexit could occur on October 31, and there would be no need for an extension. Or, if some limited further time is needed, a brief extension would surely be granted. However, even if the deal is passed, the Labour opposition has indicated it would offer an amendment that would require the deal to be put to another referendum. Organizing a referendum would take at least 22 weeks, it is estimated. The hundreds of thousands of "Remain" demonstrators on the streets in London Saturday would welcome such a development, but the outcome of a choice between the current deal and remaining in the EU is highly uncertain. Another expected proposed amendment will call for a UK-wide customs union with the EU and single market alignment.
在撰寫本文之際，仍有許多可能的英國退歐結果。約翰遜預計將在未來幾天內對該協議進行投票，除非下議院議長約翰·伯考(John Bercoo)不允許重新進行投票。對該協議的投票可能會很接近，但它可能會獲得通過。如果是這樣的話，英國退歐可能會在10月31日發生，不需要延期。或者，如果需要一些有限的進一步時間，肯定會批准短暫的延期。然而，即使該協議獲得通過，工黨反對黨也表示，他們將提出一項修正案，要求將該協議提交另一次全民公投。據估計，組織全民公投至少需要22周時間。週六在倫敦街頭的數十萬“留歐”示威者將歡迎這樣的事態發展，但在當前協議和留在歐盟之間做出選擇的結果非常不確定。另一項預計提出的修正案將呼籲在英國範圍內與歐盟建立關税同盟，並建立單一市場聯盟。
Should there be no positive vote on the deal, a three-month delay is very likely to be granted by the EU, even though both France and Ireland have threatened to oppose this. Johnson's failure to obtain approval of his deal is expected to lead to a confidence motion by the opposition, the downfall of his government, and a new election, which, in turn, could lead to either another Conservative government or an opposition government committed to a second referendum.
如果該協議沒有獲得贊成票，歐盟很可能會批准推遲三個月，儘管法國和愛爾蘭都威脅要反對這一做法。約翰遜未能讓他的交易獲得批准，預計將導致反對黨提出信任動議，他的政府垮台，並舉行新的選舉，這反過來可能導致另一個保守黨政府或反對黨政府承諾舉行第二次公投。
Finally, the risk of a hard, no-deal Brexit is still possible. This would happen if there is no agreement on a deal by October 31 and the EU fails to agree to an extension. It also is a possible outcome if there is a three-month extension but no agreement on a deal has been reached by the end of that extension.
最後，英國仍有可能出現硬退歐、無法達成協議的風險。如果在10月31日之前無法就協議達成協議，且歐盟未能同意延期，就會出現這種情況。如果延期三個月，但在延期結束時仍未就協議達成協議，這也是一個可能的結果。
The uncertainty about the United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union in 2019 has been a headwind for the UK economy since the referendum in June 2016 started affecting business decisions. Economic growth had been solid until the end of 2016, and then, during the first half of 2017, eased to the slowest rate among the G7 countries. In the last two and a half years, Brexit uncertainties have led to deteriorating business confidence and have held back investment decisions. In 2018, gross fixed capital formation slowed to just 0.2% for the year. Pressures to relocate some financial activities abroad have increased, threatening the leading role of the City of London. The OECD is projecting economic growth for the UK of only 1% this year and 0.9% for 2020, assuming an orderly Brexit in 2019.
自2016年6月公投開始影響商業決策以來，英國計劃於2019年退出歐盟的不確定性一直是英國經濟的逆風。在2016年底之前，經濟增長一直很穩健，然後在2017年上半年，增速放緩至七國集團(G7)國家中最慢的。在過去的兩年半里，英國退歐的不確定性導致商業信心惡化，並阻礙了投資決策。2018年，全年固定資本形成總額放緩至僅0.2%。將部分金融活動遷往海外的壓力增加，威脅到倫敦金融城的主導地位。經合組織預計，假設2019年英國有序退歐，英國今年的經濟增長率僅為1%，2020年為0.9%。
Investors generally do not like uncertainty, yet over the period since the referendum the FTSE 100 has gained 13%, despite wide swings in Brexit expectations and the slowing economy. The swings in market sentiment due to Brexit developments and the political turmoil in Parliament have been impressive. The range over the past 52 weeks for the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU), is 28.4-34.02, but the 1-year gain as of October 18 is just 0.19%. More market volatility looks likely ahead. Should agreement on a deal be reached this month, the probable resulting boost to market sentiment could prove to be short-lived, as an election would still be likely towards the end of this year or early in 2020.
投資者普遍不喜歡不確定性，然而在公投以來的一段時間裏，富時100指數(FTSE100)上漲了13%，儘管英國退歐預期大幅波動，經濟放緩。英國退歐事態發展和議會政治動盪導致的市場情緒波動令人印象深刻。IShares MSCI英國ETF(IShares MSCI UK ETF)過去52周的波動區間為EWU)，為28.4-34.02，但截至10月18日的一年期漲幅僅為0.19%.未來可能會出現更多的市場波動。如果本月就協議達成協議，可能對市場情緒的提振可能被證明是短暫的，因為選舉仍有可能在今年年底或2020年初舉行。
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Sources: Financial Times, bbc.com, cnbc.com, oecd.org
消息來源：金融時報，bbc.com，cnbc.com，OECD.org
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
編者注：本文的摘要項目符號是由尋找Alpha編輯選擇的。
