Rarefied Air In The Stock Market
Rarefied Air In The Stock Market
Today we celebrate an impressive victory for Team Bull.Summary
摘要
Today we celebrate an impressive victory for Team Bull.
今天，我們慶祝公牛隊取得了一場令人印象深刻的勝利。
Let's briefly recap the numbers.
讓我們簡單回顧一下這些數字。
- 4 new highs in the last 6 trading days.
- 22% gain year-to-date.
- Up 10 of the last 15 days.
- Up 255% since the bottom in 2009.
- Up 42% since Trump took office.
- 創近六個交易日來的四個新高。
- 今年到目前為止，漲幅為22%。
- 過去15天中有10天上漲。
- 自2009年觸底以來上漲了255%。
- 自特朗普上任以來上漲了42%。
Any way you slice it, this 10-year old bull market has put up impressive numbers. But I would be remiss if I didn't point out the risks that go along with the well-deserved victory dance after a historic bull run.
無論如何，這輪持續了10年的牛市已經公佈了令人印象深刻的數字。但是，如果我不指出在一場歷史性的公牛賽跑之後，伴隨着當之無愧的勝利之舞而來的風險，那我就是玩忽職守了。
New Highs
再創新高
4 new highs in 6 days is certainly impressive, but it's not a record. In 2013 we had 5 new highs in a row, then took a 1-day breather, and then made another 4 new highs in a row. That was a Ted Williams caliber new highs streak.
6天內創下4個新高當然令人印象深刻，但這並不是一個紀錄。2013年，我們連續5次創下新高，然後休息了1天，然後又連續4次創下新高。這是泰德·威廉姆斯口徑的新高連勝紀錄。
22% gain YTD
同比增長22%
This is very impressive, but not even in the top 7 of all time. 1933, 1935, 1945, 1954, 1991, 1995, and 1997 were all years with better YTD returns than this year.
這是非常令人印象深刻的，但甚至沒有進入歷史上的前7名。1933年、1935年、1945年、1954年、1991年、1995年和1997年都是YTD回報比今年更好的年份。
Up 10 of the last 15 days
過去15天中有10天上漲
Again, very impressive but not even in the top 10. See the above for longer streaks of up days.
再説一次，非常令人印象深刻，但甚至不在前10名中。看看上面的更長時間的上漲天數。
Up 255% since the bottom in 2009
自2009年觸底以來上漲了255%
That's roughly 10.5 years, or about 15.3% per year compounded. No denying it's an impressive run but is it the best ever, as some pundits are saying? Here is the shortlist of the greatest bull markets of all time.
這大約是10.5年，或者説每年約15.3%的複合增長率。不可否認，這是一次令人印象深刻的跑步，但是否像一些權威人士所説的那樣，這是有史以來最好的一次？以下是有史以來最大牛市的入圍名單。
- 1982-2000 +666%
- 1871-1906 + 421%
- 1949-1968 + 416%
- 1921-1929 +396%
- 1932-1937 +266%
- 2009-2019 +255%
- 1982-2000 +666%
- 1871-1906 + 421%
- 1949-1968 + 416%
- 1921-1929 +396%
- 1932-1937 +266%
- 2009-2019 +255%
This magnificent bull market comes in at #6 on the all-time leader board. (But it ain't done yet.)
這波壯麗的牛市在歷史排行榜上排在第6位。(但它還沒有完成。)
Up 42% since Trump took office
自特朗普上任以來上漲了42%
This one is a hot button, so I'll just say that Obama presided over (but did not cause, as Trump did not cause) a 44% bull market over the same time frame as Trump.
這是一個熱點，所以我只能説，奧巴馬在與特朗普相同的時間框架內主持了44%的牛市(但並沒有導致，因為特朗普沒有造成)。
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
編者注：本文的摘要項目符號是由尋找Alpha編輯選擇的。