Summary
Thursday morning's seasonally adjusted 211K new claims, down 8K from the previous week's revised 219K, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 215K.
Below is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession.
For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle.
By Jill Mislinski
Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending November 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,750 to 215,000. [See full report]
Thursday morning's seasonally adjusted 211K new claims, down 8K from the previous week's revised 219K, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 215K.
Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession.
As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.
The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).
![250652db19b8cb57476618f502708dd4.png]()
Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continues to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.
![Nonseasonally Adjusted 52-week MA]()
Annual Comparisons
Here is a calendar-year overlay since 2009 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to compare the annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009, near the end of the Great Recession.
![Yearly Overlay]()
For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.
![Initial Claims to the CLF]()
Original post
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Summary
Thursday morning's seasonally adjusted 211K new claims, down 8K from the previous week's revised 219K, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 215K.
週四上午，經季節調整的新申領失業救濟金人數為21.1萬人，比前一週修正後的21.9萬人減少了8K人，遜於Investing.com預測的21.5萬人。
Below is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession.
下面是過去十年的數據(帶有過去一年的標註)，讓我們更清楚地瞭解了與上一次衰退相關的整體趨勢。
For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle.
有關申領失業救濟金人數佔勞動力的百分比的分析，請參閲定期更新的文章平民勞動力、失業申領人數和商業週期。
吉爾·米斯林斯基(Jill Mislinski)著
Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending November 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,750 to 215,000. [See full report]
11月2日止當週，經季節調整的初請失業金人數預估為21.1萬人，較前一週修正後的水平減少8000人。前一週的水平被上修了1,000點，從21.8萬點上修至21.9萬點。四周移動均值為215,250，較前一週修正後均值增加250。前一週均值被上修250點，從214,750點上修至215,000點。[查看完整報告]
Thursday morning's seasonally adjusted 211K new claims, down 8K from the previous week's revised 219K, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 215K.
週四上午，經季節調整的新申領失業救濟金人數為21.1萬人，比前一週修正後的21.9萬人減少了8K人，遜於Investing.com預測的21.5萬人。
Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession.
以下是過去十年的數據(帶有過去一年的標註)，讓我們更清楚地瞭解了與上一次衰退相關的整體趨勢。
As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.
正如我們所看到的，這個指標有很好的波動性，這就是為什麼四周移動平均線(突出顯示的數字)比每週數據更有用的數字。以下是完整的數據系列。
The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).
整體失業保險數據經季節性調整。未經季節調整的數據是什麼樣子？見下圖，它清楚地顯示了未調整數據(紅點)的極端波動性。四周均線給出了季節性變化的週期性模式的指示(注意，例如，那些定期的1月份峯值)。
Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continues to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.
由於未經調整的周度數據的極端波動性，我們可以加上52周移動平均線，以便更好地瞭解長期趨勢。下面的圖表還對數據進行了線性迴歸。我們可以看到，這一指標繼續低於追溯到1968年的長期趨勢。
Annual Comparisons
Here is a calendar-year overlay since 2009 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to compare the annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009, near the end of the Great Recession.
以下是自2009年以來使用4周移動平均線的歷年覆蓋情況。這樣做的目的是比較自2009年春季，也就是大衰退接近尾聲時達到頂峯以來的年度坡度。
For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.
有關申領失業救濟金人數佔勞動力的百分比的分析，請定期參閲更新後的片斷平民勞動力、申領失業救濟金人數和經濟週期。以下是該分析的快照。
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
編者注：本文的摘要項目符號是由尋找Alpha編輯選擇的。
