PPI Inflation Could Hit Lowest Level Since September 2020, Reflecting Easing Inflationary Pressures
PPI Inflation Could Hit Lowest Level Since September 2020, Reflecting Easing Inflationary Pressures
Following the lower-than-expected consumer price inflation data released Wednesday, there may be more positive news coming on the inflation front with the Thursday release U.S. producer price index (PPI) report.
繼週三發佈低於預期的消費者價格通脹數據後，週四發佈的美國生產者價格指數(PPI)報告可能會在通脹方面傳出更多積極消息。
Economists predict a year-over-year increase of 0.4% for the PPI index in June, down from 1.1% in May, marking the lowest level since September 2020 and the twelfth consecutive month of declining producer inflation.
經濟學家預測，6月份PPI指數同比上漲0.4%，低於5月份的1.1%，這是自2020年9月以來的最低水準，也是生產者通脹連續第12個月下降。
The monthly producer inflation is expected to show a 0.2% gain, consistent with May's figures. Core PPI inflation is seen falling from 2.8% to 2.6% annually, the lowest since February 2021.
月度生產者出廠價格指數預計將上漲0.2%，與5月份的數據一致。核心PPI通脹率預計將從2.8%降至2.6%，為2021年2月以來的最低水準。
The upcoming release of the producer price index will provide additional insights into inflation trends, which will have ramifications for monetary policy choices and market expectations about future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
即將發佈的生產者價格指數將提供對通脹趨勢的更多洞察，這將對貨幣政策選擇和市場對美聯儲未來加息的預期產生影響。
Chart: US PPI Seen Falling To Nearly 3-Year Lows
圖表：美國PPI降至近三年低點
June PPI Inflation Preview: What You Need To Know Before The Print
6月份PPI通脹預覽：列印前需要了解的內容
- Consumer inflation in June decreased to 3% year-on-year, posting a full percentage drop from May, and the lowest reading since March 2021. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also declined to 4.8% year-on-year, falling short of expectations of 5%.
- 6月份消費者通脹同比下降至3%，較5月份下降了整整一個百分點，是自2021年3月以來的最低讀數。不包括食品和能源的核心通脹率同比也降至4.8%，低於5%的預期。
- This alleviating inflationary pressure is a result of the manufacturing sector's dismal activity data, where prices paid have dropped significantly. According to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, June witnessed the fastest rate of contraction in the manufacturing sector since May 2020, with the activity gauge down from 46.9 in May to 46 in June. The subindex for prices paid registered a dramatic fall into contraction, down from 44.2 to 41.8 in June.
Read also: US Manufacturing Crisis Worsens: Activity Shrinks For 8th Straight Month To Lowest In 3 Years
- Manufacturers surveyed by the ISM indicated the presence of "a buyers' market, as sellers are concerned about filling order books to support their backlogs." Only one of the top six manufacturing industries (Computer and Electronic Products) reported price increases in June. Eighty-nine percent of companies reported the same or lower prices in June, compared to 85% in May.
- 這種緩解的通脹壓力是製造業活動數據慘淡的結果，製造業支付的價格大幅下降。根據ISM製造業採購經理人指數，6月份是自2020年5月以來製造業收縮速度最快的月份，製造業活動指數從5月份的46.9降至6月份的46。支付價格分類指數大幅下降，從6月份的44.2降至41.8。
另請閱讀：美國制造業危機惡化：經濟活動連續第8個月萎縮至3年來最低
- 接受ISM調查的製造商表示，存在“買家市場，因為賣家擔心填寫訂單來支持他們的積壓訂單。”六大製造業中只有一個行業(電腦和電子產品)在6月份報告了價格上漲。89%的公司報告6月份價格持平或更低，而5月份的這一比例為85%。
- In the month of June, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, as tracked by the iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (NYSE:CMDY), rose 2.6%, after falling as much as 6% in May. Compared to the June 2022's levels the commodity gauge was 15% lower in June 2023.
- Oil prices, tracked by the United States Oil Fund ETF (NYSE:USO), increased by 3.7% in June 2023 but remained 33% below June 2022 levels.
- Freight costs, as monitored by the Baltic Dry Index, widely regarded as the most popular global shipping costs index, rose 11% in June after plummeting 39% in May, but remained over 50% lower than June 2022 levels.
- 在6月份，彭博商品指數，根據IShares Bloomberg Roll精選商品策略ETF(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：CMDY)，繼5月份下跌6%後，上漲2.6%。與2022年6月的S水準相比，2023年6月的大宗商品價格指數低了15%。
- 石油價格，由美國石油基金ETF(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：USO)，2023年6月增加了3.7%，但仍比2022年6月的水準低33%。
- 運費，由波羅的海乾散貨運價指數被廣泛認為是最受歡迎的全球航運成本指數，繼5月份暴跌39%後，6月份上漲了11%，但仍比2022年6月的水準低50%以上。
Read also: 5 Commodity ETFs To Watch When PPI Inflation Data Drops Wednesday
另請閱讀：週三PPI通脹數據下跌時需要關注的5只大宗商品ETF
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