We Think Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical (SHSE:600618) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical (SHSE:600618) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600618) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
傳奇基金經理Li·Lu曾說過,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。因此,當你考慮到任何一隻股票的風險有多大時,你需要考慮債務可能是顯而易見的,因為太多的債務可能會讓一家公司倒閉。重要的是上海氯鹼化工有限公司。(上海證券交易所:600618)確實背負著債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否讓該公司面臨風險。
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候債務是個問題?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業發展的一種工具,但如果一家企業無法償還貸款人的債務,那麼它就只能聽從貸款人的擺佈。最終,如果公司不能履行其償還債務的法定義務,股東可能會一無所有地離開。儘管這並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債累累的公司永久性地稀釋股東的權益,因為貸款人迫使他們以令人沮喪的價格籌集資金。當然,許多公司利用債務為增長提供資金,沒有任何負面後果。當我們考慮一家公司的債務用途時,我們首先會把現金和債務放在一起看。
See our latest analysis for Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical
查看我們對上海氯鹼化工的最新分析
What Is Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's Net Debt?
上海氯鹼化工的淨負債是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2023 Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical had debt of CN¥1.54b, up from CN¥1.23b in one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥3.56b in cash, leading to a CN¥2.02b net cash position.
下圖顯示,截至2023年3月,上海氯鹼化工的債務為人民幣15.4億元,高於一年內的人民幣12.3億元。但另一方面,它也有35.6億元人民幣的現金,導致20.2億元的淨現金頭寸。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/pic/0-cd7d59bceab947c9799326bfc2d5337c-0-fb626ee9d701f2dee160e3c07c859c0e.png/big)
A Look At Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's Liabilities
上海氯鹼化工負債情況一瞥
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical had liabilities of CN¥1.77b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥1.47b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥3.56b as well as receivables valued at CN¥824.3m due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥1.14b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
放大最新的資產負債表數據可以看到,上海氯鹼化工有17.7億元人民幣的負債在12個月內到期,超過12個月的負債有14.7億元人民幣到期。作為這些債務的抵消,該公司有35.6億加元的現金以及8.243億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有11.4億元人民幣更多流動資產超過總負債。
This surplus suggests that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Simply put, the fact that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
這一盈餘表明,上海氯鹼化工擁有保守的資產負債表,很可能不會有太大困難地消除債務。簡而言之,上海氯鹼化工的現金多於債務,可以說是一個很好的跡象,表明它能夠安全地管理債務。
It is just as well that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 49% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
幸好上海氯鹼化工的負擔不是太重,因為它的息稅前利潤比去年下降了49%。收益下降(如果這種趨勢持續下去)最終可能會使規模不大的債務面臨相當大的風險。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。但影響未來資產負債表表現的,將是上海氯鹼化工的盈利。因此,當考慮債務時,絕對值得關注收益趨勢。點擊此處查看互動快照。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤只是不能削減這一點。雖然上海氯鹼化工的資產負債表上有淨現金,但它將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉換為自由現金流的能力仍值得一看,以幫助我們瞭解它正在以多快的速度建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額。在過去三年中,上海氯鹼化工的自由現金流總計為負。對於自由現金流不可靠的公司來說,債務的風險要大得多,因此股東們應該希望過去的支出能在未來產生自由現金流。
Summing Up
總結
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has net cash of CN¥2.02b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we are not troubled with Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
雖然我們同情投資者對債務的擔憂,但您應該記住,上海氯鹼化工擁有20.2億元人民幣的淨現金,流動資產多於負債。因此,我們對上海氯鹼化工的債務使用並不感到困擾。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。請注意,上海氯鹼化工正在展示我們的投資分析中的3個警告信號,其中一條不應被忽視……
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
總而言之,有時候專注於甚至不需要債務的公司會更容易。讀者可以訪問淨債務為零的成長型股票列表100%免費,現在。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。