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UBS on Nvidia: Demand and Supply Dynamics Point to 'Kingmaker' Status With $14.5B Q3 Revenue Projection

UBS on Nvidia: Demand and Supply Dynamics Point to 'Kingmaker' Status With $14.5B Q3 Revenue Projection

瑞銀談英偉達:需求和供應動態指向 “Kingmaker” 地位,預計第三季度收入爲145億美元
Benzinga ·  2023/08/15 11:53

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is on a roll as analysts rerate and boost estimates ahead of its quarterly results.

英偉達公司 納斯達克股票代碼:NVDA)股價上漲,原因是分析師在季度業績公佈前重新評級並提高了預期。

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri maintained Nvidia with a Buy and raised the price target from $475 to $540. Ahead of Nvidia's earnings next week, August 23, the analyst substantially raised estimates.

瑞銀(UBS) 分析師蒂莫西·阿庫裏維持了英偉達的買入,並將目標股價從475美元上調至540美元。在英偉達下週(8月23日)公佈業績之前,分析師大幅提高了預期。

Also Read: What's Going On With Nvidia Stock Tuesday?

另請閱讀:週二英偉達股票怎麼了?

Investor expectations for FY25 (CY24) EPS have risen substantially, but he recommended investors stay the course here and remain bullish amid the recent pullback in the stock over the past month.

投資者對25財年(CY24)每股收益的預期已大幅上升,但他建議投資者堅持下去,在最近一個月該股回調的情況下繼續看漲。

Demand will dictate NVDA's long-term Al revenue opportunity, but supply should be the primary determinant for its data center revenue through CY24.

需求將決定NVDA的長期鋁收入機會,但供應應該是其在CY24之前數據中心收入的主要決定因素。

Net, Arcuri sees ~$14.5 billion as a reasonable revenue bogey for Q3 and now sees NVDA tracking to ~$10 EPS this year and ~$17 in FY25 (CY24). NVDA is quite literally serving as a "kingmaker" as a huge wave of

實際上,Arcuri認爲第三季度約爲145億美元是合理的收入柏忌,現在NVDA預計今年的每股收益約爲10美元,在25財年(CY24)約爲17美元。NVDA 實際上是 “造王者”,就像一大波浪潮一樣

capital and new financing vehicles are chasing new Al software and specialized cloud infrastructure models while enterprises are still very early in a struggle to access enough capacity to build out Al at scale - this likely lasts well into next year.

資本和新的融資工具正在追逐新的Al軟件和專業的雲基礎設施模型,而企業在努力獲得足夠的容量來大規模建造Al還處於初期階段,這可能會持續到明年。

Even for more tactical investors, it still seems early to get off this train because Y/Y comps will not get tough until year-end, and the stock has rarely peaked before Y/Y.

即使對於更具戰術性的投資者來說,現在下車似乎還爲時過早,因爲Y/Y的表現要到年底才會變得艱難,而且該股很少在Y/Y之前達到頂峯。

Arcuri estimates NVDA will grow from ~6% of the ~$250 billion data center spend TAM in C2022 (cloud+enterprise) to ~25% next year, reinforcing that cloud capex budgets must rise substantially to accommodate both the Al build-out and upgrades to traditional IT infrastructure.

Arcuri估計,NVDA將從 C2022(雲+企業)約2500億美元數據中心支出中的約6%增長到明年的25%左右,這進一步證實了雲資本支出預算必須大幅增加才能適應Al的擴建和對傳統IT基礎設施的升級。

Arcuri estimates EPS of $2.14 for Q2 vs $2.06 Est, $2.68 - $2.93 for Q3 vs $2.29 Est and $2.99 - $3.88 for Q4 vs $2.49 Est.

Arcuri估計,第二季度每股收益爲2.14美元,美國東部標準時間爲2.06美元,第三季度爲2.68美元至2.93美元,美國東部標準時間爲2.29美元,第四季度爲2.99美元至3.88美元,美國東部標準時間爲2.49美元。

He projects EPS of $8.90 - $10.05 for Q1 FY24 vs. $7.94 Est, $12.22 - $17.25 for Q1 FY25 vs. $11.39 Est, and $12.48 - $17.71 for Q1 FY25 vs $14.04 Est.

他預計,24財年第一季度每股收益爲8.90美元至10.05美元,美國東部標準時間爲7.94美元,25財年第一季度爲12.22至17.25美元,美國東部標準時間爲11.39美元,25財年第一季度爲12.48至17.71美元,美國東部標準時間爲14.04美元。

The analyst estimates NVDA's GPU unit sell-in for CY23, CY24, and CY25 to be ~1.6 million, -3.4 million, and ~3.6 million, which includes -1.1 million, ~2.7 million, and ~1.5 million H100 units.

分析師估計,NVDA在CY23、CY24和CY25的GPU單元銷量約爲160萬臺、-340萬臺和約360萬臺,其中包括-110萬臺、約270萬臺和約150萬臺H100單元。

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated Nvidia with an Overweight and raised the price target from $450 to $500.

富國銀行 分析師亞倫·雷克斯重申了英偉達的增持,並將目標股價從450美元上調至500美元。

The price target representing ~40x his $12.60 CY25 EPS or his increasing confidence that NVDA's data center momentum coupled with software monetization can drive EPS upside and valuation support (vs. shares trading at a ~36x median NTM P/E over the past 5 yrs).

目標股價約爲他在25財年每股收益12.60美元的40倍,或者他對NVDA的數據中心勢頭加上軟件貨幣化可以推動每股收益上漲和估值支撐的信心越來越大(相比之下,過去5年NTM市盈率中位數約爲36倍)。

The analyst believes a premium multiple for NVIDIA is warranted given a multiyear strong competitive positioning for data center growth driven by cloud and AI, gaming, next-generation autonomous vehicle applications, and an expanding ecosystem of products/applications (e.g., Omniverse).

這位分析師認爲,鑑於在雲和人工智能、遊戲、下一代自動駕駛汽車應用程序以及不斷擴大的產品/應用程序生態系統(例如Omniverse)的推動下,NVIDIA在數據中心增長方面多年來一直處於強勁的競爭地位,因此值得獲得溢價倍數。

Price Action: NVDA shares traded higher by 1.42% at $443.79 on the last check Tuesday.

價格走勢: 週二最後一次支票顯示,NVDA股價上漲1.42%,至443.79美元。

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