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We Think Sobute New Materials (SHSE:603916) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Sobute New Materials (SHSE:603916) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認爲 Sobute New Materials(上海證券交易所代碼:603916)的債務風險很大
Simply Wall St ·  2023/08/24 22:40

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Sobute New Materials Co., Ltd (SHSE:603916) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

傳奇基金經理Li·Lu曾說過,最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。當你考察一家公司的風險有多大時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因為當一家企業倒閉時,債務往往會涉及到它。重要的是索布特新材料有限公司(上海證券交易所:603916)確實背負著債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否讓該公司面臨風險。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務在什麼時候是危險的?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是用新資本還是用自由現金流。如果情況真的變得很糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。然而,更常見(但代價仍然高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的股份,只是為了支撐其資產負債表。然而,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本投資於高回報率增長的企業來說,債務可以成為一個非常好的工具。在考慮一家公司的債務水準時,第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。

View our latest analysis for Sobute New Materials

查看我們對索布特新材料的最新分析

What Is Sobute New Materials's Net Debt?

索布特新材料的淨債務是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2023 Sobute New Materials had CN¥1.51b of debt, an increase on CN¥1.06b, over one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥902.0m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥609.8m.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數位,但它顯示,截至2023年3月,索布特新材料的債務為15.1億元人民幣,比一年前增加了10.6億元人民幣。另一方面,它擁有9.02億加元的現金,導致淨債務約為6.098億加元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:603916 Debt to Equity History August 25th 2023
上證綜指:603916債轉股歷史2023年8月25日

A Look At Sobute New Materials' Liabilities

看索布特新材料的負債情況

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Sobute New Materials had liabilities of CN¥1.60b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.09b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥902.0m and CN¥2.89b worth of receivables due within a year. So it can boast CN¥1.11b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

從最近的資產負債表可以看到,索布特新材料有16.億元人民幣的負債在一年內到期,還有10.9億元人民幣的負債在一年內到期。另一方面,它有9.02億加元的現金和28.9億加元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它可以吹噓自己的流動資產比總計負債。

It's good to see that Sobute New Materials has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Due to its strong net asset position, it is not likely to face issues with its lenders.

很高興看到索布特新材料的資產負債表上有充足的流動性,這表明其對負債的管理是保守的。由於其強大的淨資產狀況,它不太可能面臨與貸款人的問題。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們債務相對於收益的水準。第一個是淨債務除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA),第二個是其息稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息覆蓋)的多少倍。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了為其支付的利率。

With net debt sitting at just 1.2 times EBITDA, Sobute New Materials is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 7.9 times the interest expense over the last year. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Sobute New Materials if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 50% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Sobute New Materials can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

由於淨債務僅為EBITDA的1.2倍,索布特新材料可以說是相當保守的槓桿率。這一觀點得到了堅實的利息覆蓋率的支持,去年息稅前利潤是利息支出的7.9倍。如果管理層不能防止去年息稅前利潤削減50%的情況重演,其適度的債務負擔可能對索布特新材料至關重要。當一家公司看到盈利下滑時,它有時會發現與貸款人的關係變得糟糕。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定索布特新材料能否隨著時間的推移加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Sobute New Materials recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因為一家公司不能用賬面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化為自由現金流。在過去的三年中,索布特新材料公司的自由現金流總額為負。在自由現金流為負的公司手中,債務通常更昂貴,風險也幾乎總是更高。股東們應該希望情況有所改善。

Our View

我們的觀點

Sobute New Materials's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its level of total liabilities is relatively strong. We think that Sobute New Materials's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Sobute New Materials , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

索布特新材料在息稅前利潤增長方面的掙扎讓我們對其資產負債表的實力產生了懷疑,但我們考慮的其他數據點相對來說是可取的。例如,其總負債水準相對較強。綜合考慮上述數據點,我們認為,索布特新材料的債務確實使其具有一定的風險。這不一定是一件壞事,因為槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。我們已經確定了兩個警告信號與索布特新材料合作,瞭解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,關注那些沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。你可以訪問我們的這類公司的特別名單(都有利潤增長的記錄)。這是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.

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