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Shareholders in Mandarin Oriental International (SGX:M04) Are in the Red If They Invested Five Years Ago

Shareholders in Mandarin Oriental International (SGX:M04) Are in the Red If They Invested Five Years Ago

文華東方國際集團(新加坡證券交易所股票代碼:M04)的股東如果在五年前投資,他們將處於虧損狀態
Simply Wall St ·  2023/10/16 08:02

The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Mandarin Oriental International Limited (SGX:M04), since the last five years saw the share price fall 16%.

選股的主要目的是尋找跑贏大盤的股票。但在任何投資組合中,個股之間的結果都會喜憂參半。在這一點上,一些股東可能會質疑他們在文華東方國際有限公司(SGX:M04),自過去五年以來,股價下跌了16%。

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

因此,讓我們來看看該公司的長期業績是否與基礎業務的進展一致。

Check out our latest analysis for Mandarin Oriental International

查看我們對文華東方國際的最新分析

Given that Mandarin Oriental International didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

鑑於文華東方國際在過去12個月中沒有盈利,我們將重點關注收入增長,以快速瞭解其業務發展。未盈利公司的股東通常預期營收增長強勁。一些公司願意推遲盈利以更快地增長收入,但在這種情況下,人們確實預計營收會有良好的增長。

Over half a decade Mandarin Oriental International reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 11% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 3% compound, over five years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. We doubt many shareholders are delighted with this share price performance. It is possible for businesses to bounce back but as Buffett says, 'turnarounds seldom turn'.

在過去的五年裡,文華東方國際的往績12個月營收每年減少11%。委婉地說,這讓它成了一個沒有吸引力的群體。從表面上看,我們假設股價在五年內的復合跌幅為3%,這很好地證明瞭基本面惡化的合理性。我們懷疑有多少股東對這種股價表現感到滿意。企業有可能反彈,但正如巴菲特所說,“扭虧為盈的情況很少出現轉機”。

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

下圖描述了收益和收入隨時間的變化(通過單擊圖像來揭示確切的價值)。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SGX:M04 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 16th 2023
新交所:M04收益和收入增長2023年10月16日

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

你可以看到它的資產負債表是如何隨著時間的推移而加強(或削弱)的免費互動式圖形。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Mandarin Oriental International the TSR over the last 5 years was -13%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。公平地說,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。我們注意到,文華東方國際過去5年的TSR為-13%,好於上述股價回報率。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While the broader market gained around 7.4% in the last year, Mandarin Oriental International shareholders lost 10% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Mandarin Oriental International .

儘管大盤去年上漲了約7.4%,但文華東方國際的股東損失了10%(甚至包括股息)。即使是好股票的股價有時也會下跌,但我們希望在對企業產生太大興趣之前,看到企業的基本指標有所改善。不幸的是,去年的表現可能預示著尚未解決的挑戰,因為它比過去五年3%的年化損失更糟糕。一般來說,股價長期疲軟可能是一個壞信號,儘管反向投資者可能會希望研究這只股票,希望它能好轉。我發現,把股價作為衡量企業業績的長期指標是非常有趣的。但為了真正獲得洞察力,我們還需要考慮其他資訊。為此,您應該意識到1個個警告標誌我們已經發現了文華東方國際。

But note: Mandarin Oriental International may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

但請注意:文華東方國際可能不是最值得買入的股票。所以讓我們來看看這個免費過去有盈利增長(以及進一步增長預測)的有趣公司名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.

請注意,本文中引用的市場回報反映了目前在新加坡交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫.或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是暗示Wallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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