Morgan Stanley's Net Interest Income To Slump 14% In FY24: Analyst Cautions
Morgan Stanley's Net Interest Income To Slump 14% In FY24: Analyst Cautions
Despite MS's broad-based 3Q23 beat, Fotheringham lowered estimates by as much as 2% (lower NII and higher credit costs) as NII, a key BMO Capital Markets analyst James Fotheringham reiterated the Outperform rating on Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), trimming the price target to $101 from $102.
蒙特利爾銀行資本市場分析師James Ftheringham重申了表現優於大盤的評級摩根士丹利(紐約證券交易所代碼：MS)，將目標價從102美元下調至101美元。
The bank reported a Q3 net profit of $2.4 billion, or $1.38 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $2.6 billion or $1.47 in the prior year.
該行公佈第三季度淨利潤為24億美元，或稀釋後每股1.38美元。而上一年的淨收入為26億美元或1.47美元。
The company reported revenues of $13.27 billion, beating the consensus of $12.58 billion.
該公司公佈的收入為132.7億美元，超過了125.8億美元的共識。
Despite MS's broad-based 3Q23 beat, Fotheringham lowered estimates by as much as 2% (lower NII and higher credit costs) as NII, a key margin driver for the WM segment, declined -9% sequentially as deposit sweep balances fell.
儘管微軟第三季度表現強勁，但Ftheringham將預期下調了2%(較低的NII和較高的信貸成本)，因為隨著存款清掃餘額的下降，WM部門的關鍵利潤率驅動因素NII環比下降了9%。
Higher funding costs resulted from lower deposit sweep balances (down -10% sequentially) as WM clients moved cash to higher-yielding accounts, the analyst adds.
這位分析師補充說，由於理財客戶將現金轉移到收益更高的賬戶，存款餘額減少(環比下降10%)，導致融資成本上升。
MS expects NII to fall further but did not specify timing or magnitude; relative to consensus (2024 WM NII -9% YoY), the analyst forecasts a more marked decline (-14%).
MS預計NII將進一步下降，但沒有具體說明時間或幅度；相對於共識(2024年WM NII-9%同比)，分析師預測降幅更明顯(-14%)。
Fotheringham also raised provision forecasts, given higher credit losses on office CRE loans.
Ftheringham還上調了撥備預期，因為寫字樓CRE貸款的信貸損失更高。
The analyst lowered MS core EPS estimates by -1% in 2023 (to $5.72 from $5.78) and -2% in 2024 (to $7.01 from $7.14) due to lower-than-previously modeled NII (WM) and higher credit provisions (CRE).
該分析師將微軟2023年的核心每股收益預期下調了-1%(從5.78美元下調至5.72美元)，將2024年的預期下調了-2%(從7.14美元下調至7.01美元)，原因是NII(WM)低於之前的模型和信貸撥備(CRE)較高。
Fotheringham's 2025 estimate is essentially unchanged at $8.49 (was $8.47).
福瑟林厄姆對2025年的估計基本上沒有變化，仍為8.49美元(原為8.47美元)。
On the positive side, MS still expects to reach 20%+ RoTCE (14% in 3Q23) and 30% WM pre-tax margins (28% in 3Q23) despite funding pressures and capital regulations (and assuming further expense initiatives and normalization of capital markets activity).
積極的一面是，儘管面臨資金壓力和資本監管(並假設進一步的支出舉措和資本市場活動正常化)，MS仍預計達到20%以上的RoTCE(23年第3季度14%)和30%的WM稅前利潤率(23年第三季度為28%)。
Price Action: MS shares are trading lower by 1.82% to $73.52 on the last check Thursday.
價格行動：在週四的最後一次檢查中，MS的股價下跌了1.82%，至73.52美元。