What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after investigating Guangzhou Restaurant Group (SHSE:603043), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Guangzhou Restaurant Group:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.13 = CN¥568m ÷ (CN¥6.0b - CN¥1.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

Therefore, Guangzhou Restaurant Group has an ROCE of 13%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 6.3% generated by the Hospitality industry.

View our latest analysis for Guangzhou Restaurant Group

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Guangzhou Restaurant Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Guangzhou Restaurant Group.

How Are Returns Trending?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Guangzhou Restaurant Group, we didn't gain much confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 24% over the last five years. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

Our Take On Guangzhou Restaurant Group's ROCE

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Guangzhou Restaurant Group's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. And investors may be recognizing these trends since the stock has only returned a total of 32% to shareholders over the last five years. So if you're looking for a multi-bagger, the underlying trends indicate you may have better chances elsewhere.

On a final note, we found 2 warning signs for Guangzhou Restaurant Group (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.