Estimating The Fair Value Of Peijia Medical Limited (HKG:9996)
Estimating The Fair Value Of Peijia Medical Limited (HKG:9996)
Key Insights
主要見解
- The projected fair value for Peijia Medical is HK$7.38 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of HK$7.45 suggests Peijia Medical is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Our fair value estimate is 43% lower than Peijia Medical's analyst price target of CN¥13.01
- 按兩階段自由現金流轉股權計算,沛嘉醫療的預計公允價值為7.38港元
- 目前7.45港元的股價表明,沛嘉醫療的股價可能接近其公允價值
- 我們的公允價值估計比沛嘉醫療分析師13.01元的目標價低43%
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Peijia Medical Limited (HKG:9996) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
在本文中,我們將通過預測沛嘉醫療有限公司(HKG:9996)未來的現金流並將其折現為今天的價值來估計其內在價值。這將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型來實現。信不信由你,遵循它並不太難,正如您將從我們的示例中看到的那樣!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
我們通常認為,一家公司的價值是它未來將產生的所有現金的現值。然而,貼現現金流只是眾多估值指標中的一個,它也並非沒有缺陷。對於那些熱衷於學習股票分析的人來說,這裡的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能會讓你感興趣。
View our latest analysis for Peijia Medical
查看我們對沛嘉醫療的最新分析
The Model
模型
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們使用的是兩階段增長模型,也就是說,我們考慮了公司發展的兩個階段。在初期,公司可能有較高的增長率,而第二階段通常被假設為有一個穩定的增長率。首先,我們必須對未來十年的現金流進行估計。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來的一美元不如現在的一美元,所以我們將這些未來現金流的價值貼現到以今天的美元計算的估計價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由現金流(Fcf)預測
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | -CN¥497.0m | -CN¥288.0m | -CN¥196.0m | CN¥121.5m | CN¥182.3m | CN¥247.2m | CN¥310.2m | CN¥367.3m | CN¥416.7m | CN¥458.3m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 50.06% | Est @ 35.60% | Est @ 25.49% | Est @ 18.40% | Est @ 13.45% | Est @ 9.98% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3% | -CN¥463 | -CN¥250 | -CN¥159 | CN¥91.8 | CN¥128 | CN¥162 | CN¥190 | CN¥210 | CN¥222 | CN¥227 |
二零二四年 | 2025年年 | 二零二六年 | 2027年年 | 2028年年 | 2029年年 | 二0三0 | 2031年年 | 2032年年 | 2033年 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | -CN元4.97億元 | -CN元2.8億元 | -CN元1.96億元 | CN元1.215億元 | CN元1.823億元 | 淨額2.472億元 | CN元3.102億元 | 淨額3.673億元 | 淨額4.167億元 | CN元4.583億元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師x3 | 分析師x2 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x2 | Est@50.06% | Est@35.60% | Est@25.49% | Est@18.40% | Est@13.45% | Est@9.98% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@7.3% | -CN元463元 | -CN元250元 | -CN元159元 | CN元91.8元 | CN元128元 | CN元162元 | CN元190元 | CN元210元 | CN元222元 | CN元227元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥358m
(“美國東部時間”=Simply Wall St.預估的Fcf成長率)
10年期現金流現值(聚偏氟乙烯)=CN元3.58億元
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.3%.
第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率1.9%的5年平均水準。我們以7.3%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥458m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.3%– 1.9%) = CN¥8.7b
終端值(電視)=FCF2033年×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元4.58M×(1+1.9%)?(7.3%-1.9%)=CN元87億
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥8.7b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= CN¥4.3b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元87億?(1+7.3%)10=CN人民幣43億元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥4.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$7.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為47億加元。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。相對於目前7.5港元的股價,該公司在撰寫本文時似乎接近公允價值。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生很大影響,因此最好將其視為粗略估計,而不是精確到最後一分錢。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20231031/0-ac2ca728be500bef20c184baefef25d1-0-34dfdbc0daa6e0901dc7860c28f39e98.png/big)
The Assumptions
假設
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Peijia Medical as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.887. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將沛嘉醫療視為潛在股東,我們使用股權成本作為貼現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了7.3%,這是基於槓桿率為0.887的測試值。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
SWOT Analysis for Peijia Medical
沛嘉醫療的SWOT分析
- Debt is well covered by earnings.
- 盈利很好地彌補了債務。
- Balance sheet summary for 9996.
- 9996年度資產負債表摘要。
- Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
- 基於本益比和估計公允價值的昂貴。
- Forecast to reduce losses next year.
- 預計明年將減少虧損。
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- 運營現金流無法很好地覆蓋債務。
- Has less than 3 years of cash runway based on current free cash flow.
- 根據當前的自由現金流,擁有不到3年的現金跑道。
- Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
- 預計在未來3年內不會實現盈利。
- Is 9996 well equipped to handle threats?
- 9996是否做好了應對威脅的準備?
Moving On:
下一步:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Peijia Medical, there are three essential items you should further examine:
就構建你的投資論文而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。對於沛嘉醫療,有三個基本專案你應該進一步檢查:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Peijia Medical you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 9996's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 風險:每家公司都有,我們已經發現了沛嘉醫療的1個警告標誌你應該知道。
- 未來收益:9996‘S的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數位。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每隻香港股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的內在價值,只需蒐索此處。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫.或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是暗示Wallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.