Fed Meeting Preview: Bank Of America Expects One More Interest Rate Hike, And Here's When It's Going To Happen
Fed Meeting Preview: Bank Of America Expects One More Interest Rate Hike, And Here's When It's Going To Happen
The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting is commencing Tuesday and is set to conclude on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve publishing its policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell hosting an eagerly awaited press conference. The prevailing market sentiment firmly expects that interest rates will hold steady within the 5.25% to 5.5% range.
美國聯盟公開市場委員會為期兩天的會議將於週二開始,定於週三結束,屆時美聯儲將發佈政策聲明,並將擔任美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾主持一場期待已久的新聞發布會。市場普遍預期利率將穩定在5.25%至5.5%的區間內。
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is an astonishing 99.6% likelihood that rates will remain unchanged. As we look forward to December, market participants exhibit somewhat reduced confidence, yet they still assign a robust 75% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy stance.
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的FedWatch工具,利率保持不變的可能性高達驚人的99.6%。在我們展望12月之際,市場參與者的信心有所下降,但他們仍認為美聯儲維持其政策立場的可能性高達75%。
With Wall Street largely expecting the Fed will keep rates steady, one distinct voice stands out.
由於華爾街基本上預計美聯儲將保持利率穩定,一個明顯的聲音脫穎而出。
Read also: Will Treasury's Upcoming Monster Borrowing Plans Outshine Fed's Interest Rate Call?
另請閱讀: 財政部即將出臺的怪獸借款計劃是否會勝過美聯儲的加息號召?
Bank of America's Contrarian Call On Interest Rates
美國銀行對利率的反向呼籲
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, despite strong economic growth and job numbers, according to a note shared Tuesday by rates strategist Mark Cabana and economist Michael Gapen from Bank of America. Yet this view comes with an asterisk.
根據利率策略師週二分享的一份報告,儘管經濟增長強勁,就業數據強勁,但美聯儲可能會保持利率不變梅克·卡巴納和經濟學家邁克爾·加彭來自美國銀行。然而,這種觀點帶有一個星號。
Powell may reiterate the Fed will proceed carefully and hold a restrictive stance during the press conference, Cabana and Gapen said. Powell may struggle in explaining why a 5.5% federal funds rate is considered restrictive when real GDP is growing at 4.9%, there was a notable uptick in September payrolls, resilient core services and robust retail spending, they said.
卡巴納和加彭表示,鮑威爾可能會重申,美聯儲將謹慎行事,並在新聞發布會期間保持限制性立場。他們表示,鮑威爾可能很難解釋為什麼5.5%的聯盟基金利率被認為是限制性的,而實際國內生產總值(GDP)正以4.9%的速度增長,9月份的就業人數、彈性的核心服務和強勁的零售支出都出現了顯著增長。
Powell could reiterate his stance that further rate hikes could be warranted if there is "additional evidence" of growth surpassing trend levels or if the labor market tightens further, the analysts said.
分析人士表示,鮑威爾可能會重申他的立場,即如果有“更多證據”表明經濟增長超過趨勢水準,或者如果勞動力市場進一步收緊,可能有理由進一步加息。
"We are concerned that the Fed is ignoring rate market signals at their own peril."
“我們擔心,美聯儲無視利率市場信號,後果自負。”
Yields on the 10-year Treasury bond, monitored through the US 10-Year Treasury Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN), have surged from 3.85% to 4.85% since the beginning of the year. This surprising increase has occurred even though many on Wall Street had anticipated that bond yields would have dropped due to growing concerns about a recession this year, according to BofA.
10年期國債收益率,通過美國10年期國債ETF(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:UTEN),自年初以來已從3.85%飆升至4.85%。美國銀行表示,儘管華爾街許多人曾預計,由於對今年經濟衰退的擔憂日益加劇,債券收益率將會下降,但債券收益率還是出現了令人驚訝的增長。
The Fed risks lagging behind the curve in terms of real growth and inflation unless it adjusts its approach in response to higher rates, Cabana and Gapen said.
Cabana和Gapen表示,美聯儲在實際增長和通脹方面可能落後於曲線,除非它調整方法以應對更高的利率。
The Bank of America analysts reaffirmed their expectation that there will be another rate increase in December.
美國銀行分析師重申,他們預計12月還會有一次加息。
Read now: Federal Reserve Preview: Goldman Sachs Says Rate Hikes Finished, Hints At Possible 'Insurance Cuts' In 2024
立即閱讀:美聯儲預覽:高盛稱加息已結束,暗示2024年可能會削減保險
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照片來自Shutterstock。