Options Montage: Reflation trades fade
Options Montage: Reflation trades fade
By Eli, Melody
作者:Eli,Melody
Reflation trades fade as divided government becomes the base case.
隨着分裂的政府成為基本情況,通貨再膨脹交易逐漸消退。
Joe Biden won, but he certainly didn't hang a 10 on a Blue Wave. The republicans seem to have held onto their Senate majority, results from Tuesday's election significantly lowered the odds of a unified Democratic sweep.
喬·拜登贏了,但他肯定沒有在藍浪上打出10分。共和黨似乎保住了他們在參議院的多數席位,週二的選舉結果大大降低了民主黨統一大獲全勝的可能性。
source: WSJ
來源:《華爾街日報》
There is only a 20% chance of a Democratic Senate(down from nearly 60% heading into the election). As a result, institutional pros outflowed several trades that had hinged on an election-driven reflation theme, given the likelihood of smaller fiscal stimulus.
民主黨參議員當選的可能性只有20%(低於選舉前的近60%)。因此,考慮到較小規模財政刺激的可能性,機構投資者流出了幾筆與選舉驅動的通貨再膨脹主題息息相關的交易。
Now the market is expecting a materially smaller Phase 4 fiscal deal(less than $1 trillion versus the $2.5-3 trillion possible on a Democratic sweep) and limited expansion in longer-term priorities such as infrastructure.
現在,市場預計第四階段的財政協議規模將小得多(不到1萬億美元,而民主黨大獲全勝可能達到2.5-3萬億美元),以及基礎設施等較長期優先事項的有限擴張。
Moving forward, markets are likely to trade with a divided government baseline while news on the public health trajectory and vaccine development should take over as a key driver for markets into year-end.
展望未來,市場可能會在政府基準線存在分歧的情況下交易,而有關公共衞生軌跡和疫苗開發的消息應該會成為市場進入年底的關鍵驅動因素。
So, expect market would be more cautious in reprising that anticipatory repricing this time around that at least to year-end!
因此,預計市場將更加謹慎地重啟預期重新定價,這一次至少到年底!
Notable bettings toward broader market indices ETF on 11/6
11/6大盤指數ETF值得注意的押注
Market-wide option volume of 33.7m contracts was 18% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 14 to 9. Single stock and Index products saw relatively heavy volume, while ETF flow was moderate.
全市場3370萬份合約的期權成交量比最近的平均水平高出18%,看跌期權的數量為14至9份。單一股票和指數產品的成交量相對較大,而ETF的成交量不大。
Individuals breakdown by sectors (11/6 notable bets)
按行業細分的個人(11/6值得注意的賭注)
Most active sectors included Health Care, Consumer Goods and Basic Materials while Industrials and Telecommunications were relatively light. Of the 3,616 stocks with listed options, 1,204 (33%) closed higher, and 2,166 (60%) lower. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30day implied volatility was lower for 344 and higher for 116.
最活躍的行業包括醫療保健、消費品和基本材料,而工業和電信行業相對較輕。在擁有上市期權的3,616只股票中,1,204只(33%)收盤上漲,2,166只(60%)下跌。在流動性最強的500只單一股票中,30天隱含波動率較低的有344只,較高的有116只。
Tech
高科技
Industrial
工業
Consumer Cyclical
消費週期
Financial
金融
Communication Services
通信服務
Healthcare
醫療保健
Energy
能量
Real Estate
房地產
Basic Materials
基礎材料
Consumer Defensive
消費者防禦性
Utilities
公用事業
Options Montage from moomoo news team, the most exclusive and insightful order flow details we delivered. They provide increased cost-efficiency, they have the potential to deliver higher percentage returns and strategic alternatives.
來自moomoo新聞團隊的選項蒙太奇,最獨家和最有洞察力的訂單流程細節我們交付。它們提供了更高的成本效益,它們有可能提供更高的百分比回報和戰略選擇。