Is There An Opportunity With Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition Inc.'s (SZSE:300795) 47% Undervaluation?
Is There An Opportunity With Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition Inc.'s (SZSE:300795) 47% Undervaluation?
Key Insights
關鍵見解
- Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition's estimated fair value is CN¥54.35 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition is estimated to be 47% undervalued based on current share price of CN¥28.68
- The analyst price target for 300795 is 100% less than our estimate of fair value
- 根據兩階段股權自由現金流計算,浙江米里昂商業展覽會的公允價值估計爲54.35元人民幣
- 根據目前28.68元人民幣的股價,浙江梅里昂商業展覽會的估值估計被低估了47%
- 分析師對300795的目標股價比我們對公允價值的估計低100%
Does the November share price for Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition Inc. (SZSE:300795) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
浙江米奧倫特商業展覽有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:300795)11月份的股價是否反映了其真正價值?今天,我們將通過預測的公司未來現金流並將其折扣回今天的價值來估算股票的內在價值。爲此,我們將利用折扣現金流 (DCF) 模型。信不信由你,這並不難理解,正如你將從我們的例子中看到的那樣!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
公司可以在很多方面得到估值,因此我們要指出,DCF並不適合所有情況。對於那些熱衷於股票分析的人來說,你可能會對這裏的Simply Wall St分析模型感興趣。
Check out our latest analysis for Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition
查看我們對浙江米里昂商業展覽會的最新分析
The Model
該模型
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,這僅表示公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長期。通常,第一階段是較高的增長,第二階段是較低的增長階段。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年企業的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們會使用分析師的估計值,但是如果這些估計值不可用,我們會從最新的估計值或報告值中推斷出先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,在此期間,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩萎縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映出早期增長的放緩幅度往往比以後的幾年更大。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
通常,我們假設今天的一美元比未來一美元更有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行折價才能得出現值估計:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 估計
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥290.0m | CN¥386.0m | CN¥419.5m | CN¥448.8m | CN¥474.9m | CN¥498.5m | CN¥520.3m | CN¥541.0m | CN¥561.0m | CN¥580.7m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 8.68% | Est @ 6.99% | Est @ 5.80% | Est @ 4.97% | Est @ 4.39% | Est @ 3.98% | Est @ 3.70% | Est @ 3.50% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% | CN¥268 | CN¥330 | CN¥331 | CN¥327 | CN¥320 | CN¥310 | CN¥299 | CN¥288 | CN¥276 | CN¥263 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿FCF(人民幣,百萬) | 2.90 億元人民幣 | 3.860 億元人民幣 | 4.195 億元人民幣 | 44.88 億元人民幣 | 4.749 億元人民幣 | 498.5 萬元人民幣 | CN¥520.3m | CN¥541.0 萬 | 5.61 億元人民幣 | 5.807 億元人民幣 |
增長率估算來源 | 分析師 x1 | 分析師 x1 | 美國東部標準時間 @ 8.68% | Est @ 6.99% | Est @ 5.80% | Est @ 4.97% | Est @ 4.39% | 東部標準時間 @ 3.98% | Est @ 3.70% | 東部標準時間 @ 3.50% |
現值(人民幣,百萬)折扣價 @ 8.2% | CN¥268 | CN¥330 | CN¥331 | CN¥327 | CN¥320 | CN¥310 | CN¥299 | CN¥288 | CN¥276 | CN¥263 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.0b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10年期現金流(PVCF)的現值 = 30億元人民幣
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.
我們現在需要計算終值,該價值考慮了這十年之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算未來年增長率的終值,該增長率等於10年期國債收益率3.0%的5年平均值。我們將終端現金流折現爲今天的價值,權益成本爲8.2%。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥581m× (1 + 3.0%) ÷ (8.2%– 3.0%) = CN¥12b
終端價值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ¹ (r — g) = CN¥581m× (1 + 3.0%) ¹ (8.2% — 3.0%) = CN¥12b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥12b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= CN¥5.2b
終端價值的現值 (PVTV) = 電視/ (1 + r)10= CN¥12b² (1 + 8.2%)10= cn¥5.2b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥8.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥28.7, the company appears quite good value at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
因此,總價值或權益價值是未來現金流現值的總和,在本例中爲82億元人民幣。爲了得出每股內在價值,我們將其除以已發行股票總數。與目前28.7元人民幣的股價相比,該公司看起來物有所值,比目前的股價折扣了47%。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生重大影響,因此最好將其視爲粗略的估計,而不是精確到最後一美分。
The Assumptions
假設
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.855. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
現在,貼現現金流的最重要輸入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。你不必同意這些輸入,我建議你自己重做計算然後試一試。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將浙江梅里昂商業展覽會視爲潛在股東,因此使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了8.2%,這是基於0.855的槓桿貝塔值。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Looking Ahead:
展望未來:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Zhejiang Meorient Commerce Exhibition, we've compiled three further factors you should consider:
儘管公司的估值很重要,但它不應該是你研究公司時唯一要考慮的指標。差價合約模型不是投資估值的萬能藥。相反,它應該被視爲 “需要哪些假設才能使這隻股票被低估/高估?” 的指南例如,公司股本成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。我們能否弄清楚爲什麼該公司的交易價格低於內在價值?對於浙江米里昂商業展覽會,我們整理了另外三個你應該考慮的因素:
- Financial Health: Does 300795 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 300795's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 財務狀況:300795 的資產負債表健康嗎?看看我們的免費資產負債表分析,其中包含對槓桿和風險等關鍵因素的六項簡單檢查。
- 未來收益:與同行和整個市場相比,300795的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
- 其他穩健的業務:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強勁業務的基礎。爲什麼不瀏覽我們具有紮實業務基礎的交互式股票清單,看看是否還有其他公司你可能沒有考慮過!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。只需華爾街每天都會更新每隻中國股票的DCF計算結果,因此,如果您想查找任何其他股票的內在價值,只需在此處搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。