There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. So when we looked at Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE:ALSN), they do have a high ROCE, but we weren't exactly elated from how returns are trending.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Allison Transmission Holdings is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.20 = US$894m ÷ (US$5.0b - US$504m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Therefore, Allison Transmission Holdings has an ROCE of 20%. That's a fantastic return and not only that, it outpaces the average of 12% earned by companies in a similar industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Allison Transmission Holdings

In the above chart we have measured Allison Transmission Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Allison Transmission Holdings here for free.

What Can We Tell From Allison Transmission Holdings' ROCE Trend?

There hasn't been much to report for Allison Transmission Holdings' returns and its level of capital employed because both metrics have been steady for the past five years. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. So it may not be a multi-bagger in the making, but given the decent 20% return on capital, it'd be difficult to find fault with the business's current operations.

In Conclusion...

While Allison Transmission Holdings has impressive profitability from its capital, it isn't increasing that amount of capital. And with the stock having returned a mere 24% in the last five years to shareholders, you could argue that they're aware of these lackluster trends. Therefore, if you're looking for a multi-bagger, we'd propose looking at other options.

On a separate note, we've found 1 warning sign for Allison Transmission Holdings you'll probably want to know about.

Allison Transmission Holdings is not the only stock earning high returns. If you'd like to see more, check out our free list of companies earning high returns on equity with solid fundamentals.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.