November FOMC Minutes: Fed Leans Toward Rate Stability as Inflation Eases
November FOMC Minutes: Fed Leans Toward Rate Stability as Inflation Eases
Fed participants determined the current interest rate level of between 5.25% and 5.5% is restrictive and putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the Fed's November's meeting revealed Tuesday.
聯邦公開市場委員會週二公佈的美聯儲11月會議紀要顯示,美聯儲參與者認爲,目前在5.25%至5.5%之間的利率水平具有限制性,並給經濟活動和通貨膨脹帶來下行壓力。
This stance signals a potential end to the Fed's intensive rate hike campaign initiated last year, aligning with market forecasts and recent encouraging inflation data. Fed members also underlined that financial conditions tightened significantly in recent months.
這一立場標誌着美聯儲去年發起的密集加息運動可能結束,這與市場預測和最近令人鼓舞的通脹數據一致。美聯儲成員還強調,近幾個月來金融狀況大幅收緊。
Earlier this month, the Fed unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, in a move likely influenced by a series of lower-than-predicted inflation reports.
本月早些時候,美聯儲一致決定維持聯邦基金利率不變,此舉可能受到一系列低於預期的通脹報告的影響。
The majority of participants still continue to perceive upside risks for inflation and a potential decline in economic activity. They observed that additional monetary policy tightening would be warranted if incoming data suggests inadequate progress toward the committee's inflation goal.
大多數參與者仍然認爲通貨膨脹的上行風險和經濟活動可能下降。他們觀察到,如果傳入的數據表明委員會在實現通貨膨脹目標方面進展不足,則有必要進一步收緊貨幣政策。
In his recent remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of proceeding "carefully," effectively suggesting a reduced likelihood of another rate hike before the year's end.
美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在最近的講話中強調了 “謹慎” 行事的重要性,這實際上表明在年底之前再次加息的可能性降低了。
Nevertheless, during a panel discussion at the International Monetary Fund earlier this month, Powell cautioned that "inflation has given us a few head fakes," adding that "if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so."
儘管如此,在本月早些時候國際貨幣基金組織的一次小組討論中,鮑威爾警告說,“通貨膨脹給了我們一些假象”,並補充說:“如果需要進一步收緊政策,我們會毫不猶豫地這樣做。”
Before the release of the minutes, markets had already priced in the likelihood of unchanged rates at the Dec. 13 meeting. Looking ahead, traders are speculating about four possible rate reductions in the next year, with the first expected as soon as May.
在會議紀要公佈之前,市場已經在12月13日的會議上對利率保持不變的可能性進行了定價。展望未來,交易員猜測明年可能降息四次,第一次預計最快將在5月降息。