Bill Ackman Bets On Potential Fed Interest Rate Reduction in First Quarter
Bill Ackman Bets On Potential Fed Interest Rate Reduction in First Quarter
Bill Ackman, the billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, anticipates the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts sooner than market predictions.
潘興廣場資本管理公司的億萬富翁創始人比爾·阿克曼預計，美聯儲將比市場預測更早地啓動降息。
What Happened: Ackman predicts the rate cuts could take place as early as the coming quarter, Bloomberg reported. Currently, market data from swaps suggests an 80% likelihood of a rate cut by May, with traders fully expecting a cut by June.
發生了什麼：彭博社報道，阿克曼預測最早可能在下個季度降息。目前，掉期的市場數據顯示，到5月降息的可能性爲80％，交易者完全預計到6月降息。
Despite the steepest rate hike in 40 years that started in March 2022, the central bank has yet to implement any rate cuts, even amid a general slowdown in U.S. inflation this year.
儘管從2022年3月開始了40年來最大幅度的加息，但即使在今年美國通貨膨脹普遍放緩的情況下，央行仍未實施任何降息。
Ackman expressed his apprehensions about the real rate of interest rising while inflation is on the decline during an upcoming episode of The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations.
在即將播出的《大衛·魯賓斯坦秀：點對點對話》中，阿克曼對實際利率上升而通貨膨脹率下降表示擔憂。
See Also: S&P 500 At 5,000 In 2024? Bank of America's Optimistic Forecast Diversifies Beyond Magnificent 7
另見：標準普爾500指數在2024年達到5,000美元？美國銀行的樂觀預測不僅僅侷限於 “壯麗7”
He cautioned that if rates are maintained around the 5.5% range while inflation drops below 3%, it could result in a significantly high real rate of interest.
他警告說，如果利率維持在5.5％左右，而通貨膨脹率降至3％以下，則可能導致實際利率居高不下。
"I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," said Ackman.
阿克曼說：“我認爲，如果美聯儲不很快開始降息，確實存在硬着陸的風險。”
Why It Matters: Expectations regarding interest rates have taken a dovish turn since the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting earlier this month. After recent inflation data indicated a continuing slowdown in consumer and producer price inflation, U.S. interest rate markets were predicting a 65% chance that the Fed would decrease rates by May 2024. There are fears that both economic growth and corporate profits will slow down if the Fed persists with its "higher for longer" position.
爲何重要：自本月早些時候美聯儲政策制定會議以來，對利率的預期發生了鴿派轉變。在最近的通脹數據顯示消費者和生產者物價通脹持續放緩之後，美國利率市場預測美聯儲到2024年5月降息的可能性爲65％。有人擔心，如果美聯儲堅持其 “長期走高” 的立場，經濟增長和企業利潤都將放緩。
Earlier, in October, Bank of America analysts projected that the Federal Reserve would continue increasing interest rates in December 2023, following a "watch and see" period. This assumption was supported by the fact that the three most significant monthly economic indicators — the jobs report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and retail sales — all outperformed expectations.
早些時候，即10月，美國銀行分析師預計，在 “觀察和觀察” 期之後，美聯儲將在2023年12月繼續提高利率。這一假設得到了以下事實的支持：三個最重要的月度經濟指標——就業報告、消費者價格指數（CPI）和零售銷售——的表現都超過了預期。
Read Next: US Stocks On Track To Pause As Recent Gains, Data-Heavy Week Render Mood Cautious: Why This Analyst Think
繼續閱讀：由於近期上漲、數據密集的一週使情緒謹慎，美國股市有望暫停：這位分析師爲何這麼認爲
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