Key Investment Considerations:
Initiating QuantaSing Group with a Speculative Buy rating and 12-month price target of $9.00 per share. QuantaSing Group's mission, to provide adult online offerings in mainland China to improve people's quality of life and well-being by providing them lifelong personal learning and development opportunities, provides them with significant growth potential for its online adult learning brand portals - QiNiu, JiangZhen, and QianChi. Frost & Sullivan anticipates the Chinese online segment of the adult learning market to grow annually by 17.8% from 2022 through 2027, reaching RMB325 billion (or an estimated $46 billion in 2027).
Supporting our growth forecast should be QSG's ability to successfully monetize its registered user base of over 94 million and over 400,000 paying learners on its technology portal brands. At June 30, 2023, registered users and paying learners grew 60.6% and 29.9% respectively, compared to June 30 2022.
To monetize its users, the company launched a live e-commerce segment that will initially sell Chinese liquor. In August 2023, this new segment generated RMB13.3 million in gross merchandise value (or approximately $545,000). In a move to expand outside of China, the company acquired Hong Kong based Kelly's Education.
For FY24, we project EPS of $0.01 on 19.9% revenue growth to $509.6 million reflecting strong 2H24 growth from expansion of paid learners, sales from the company's live e-commerce liquor offering, and inclusion of the operations of Kelly's Education (acquired in September 2023).
For FY25, we project EPS of $0.04 on 20.2% revenue growth to $612.6 million reflecting increases in the number of paid learners, monetization of its registered users through expansion of its live e-commerce technology platform, and a full year contribution and expansion of the services provided by Kelly's Education. Our EPS forecast reflects gross margin remaining above 85% and operating expense margin improving to 84.4% from an estimated 86.4% in FY24 as QSG utilizes its technology to create operating efficiencies.
主要投資注意事項：
以投機性買入評級和每股9.00美元的12個月目標股價啓動QuantAsing集團。Quantasing Group的使命是在中國大陸提供成人在線服務，通過爲他們提供終身的個人學習和發展機會來改善他們的生活質量和福祉，爲他們提供其在線成人學習品牌門戶網站——七牛、江震和千池的巨大增長潛力。弗羅斯特沙利文預計，從2022年到2027年，中國成人學習市場的在線細分市場每年增長17.8％，達到 RMB325 億美元（2027年估計爲460億美元）。
支持我們的增長預測的應該是QSG能夠成功地通過其技術門戶品牌將其超過9400萬的註冊用戶群和超過40萬名付費學習者獲利。與2022年6月30日相比，截至2023年6月30日，註冊用戶和付費學習者分別增長了60.6％和29.9％。
爲了從用戶中獲利，該公司推出了一個直播電子商務領域，最初將銷售中國白酒。2023年8月，這個新細分市場創造了人民幣1,330萬元的商品總價值（約合54.5萬美元）。爲了向中國境外擴張，該公司收購了總部位於香港的凱利教育。
我們預計24財年的每股收益爲0.01美元，收入增長19.9％，達到5.096億美元，這反映了24年下半年的強勁增長，這要歸因於付費學習者的擴張、公司直播電子商務酒類產品的銷售以及凱利教育的業務（於2023年9月收購）的納入。
我們預計25財年的每股收益爲0.04美元，收入增長20.2％，達到6.126億美元，這反映了付費學習者人數的增加、通過擴展直播電子商務技術平台實現註冊用戶的盈利以及凱利教育提供的服務的全年貢獻和擴展。我們的每股收益預測顯示，由於QSG利用其技術提高運營效率，毛利率將保持在85％以上，運營費用利潤率從24財年的86.4％提高至84.4％。
