Is CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd (SZSE:000838) A Risky Investment?
Is CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd (SZSE:000838) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000838) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,他說:“我擔心的是永久虧損的可能性... 我認識的每位務實投資者都很擔心,而不是擔心股價的波動。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡看它對債務的使用,因爲債務超負荷可能導致破產。重要的是,凱信房地產開發集團有限公司, Ltd.(深交所代碼:000838)確實有債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其使用債務?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或使用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人迫使他們以不良价格籌集資金。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可能是一個非常好的工具。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將其現金和債務放在一起考慮。
Check out our latest analysis for CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd
查看我們對CASIN房地產開發集團有限公司的最新分析
How Much Debt Does CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd Carry?
CASIN房地產開發集團有限公司負有多少債務?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd had CN¥836.9m of debt in September 2023, down from CN¥1.13b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥640.3m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥196.6m.
你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示卡辛房地產開發集團有限公司在2023年9月的債務爲8.369億元人民幣,低於一年前的11.3億元人民幣。但是,由於其現金儲備爲6.403億元人民幣,其淨負債較少,約爲1.966億元人民幣。
A Look At CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd's Liabilities
看看CASIN房地產開發集團有限公司的負債
The latest balance sheet data shows that CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥4.52b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥134.8m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥640.3m in cash and CN¥358.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥3.66b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,卡辛房地產開發集團有限公司在一年內到期的負債爲452億元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲1.348億元人民幣。抵消這一點的是,它有6.403億元人民幣的現金和3.582億元人民幣的應收賬款,這些應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高出36.6億元人民幣。
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥4.19b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
相對於其41.9億元人民幣的市值,這是一座高昂的槓桿率。這表明,如果公司需要迅速支撐資產負債表,股東將被大幅稀釋。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是起點。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd需要收益來償還這筆債務。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。點擊此處查看交互式快照。
Over 12 months, CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to CN¥4.7b, which is a fall of 6.9%. We would much prefer see growth.
在過去的12個月中,CASIN房地產開發集團有限公司的息稅前利潤水平出現虧損,收入下降至47億元人民幣,下降6.9%。我們更希望看到增長。
Caveat Emptor
Caveat Emptor
Importantly, CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost a very considerable CN¥457m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. Another cause for caution is that is bled CN¥145m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So to be blunt we think it is risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with CASIN Real Estate Development GroupLtd .
重要的是,CASIN房地產開發集團有限公司去年出現利息稅前收益(EBIT)虧損。事實上,它在息稅前利潤水平上損失了非常可觀的4.57億元人民幣。當我們審視這個問題並回顧其資產負債表上相對於現金的負債時,我們認爲該公司有任何債務似乎是不明智的。坦率地說,我們認爲資產負債表遠非匹配,儘管隨着時間的推移可能會有所改善。另一個值得謹慎的理由是,在過去的十二個月中,自由現金流爲負1.45億元人民幣。因此,坦率地說,我們認爲這是有風險的。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中——遠非如此。爲此,您應該注意我們在CASIN房地產開發集團有限公司發現的兩個警告信號。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。
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