When researching a stock for investment, what can tell us that the company is in decline? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it's earning less on what it does invest. Having said that, after a brief look, Monro (NASDAQ:MNRO) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on Monro is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.058 = US$73m ÷ (US$1.7b - US$472m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

So, Monro has an ROCE of 5.8%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Specialty Retail industry average of 12%.

See our latest analysis for Monro

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Monro compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Monro here for free.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

In terms of Monro's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, the ROCE was 13% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Monro becoming one if things continue as they have.

While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 27%, which has impacted the ROCE. Without this increase, it's likely that ROCE would be even lower than 5.8%. Keep an eye on this ratio, because the business could encounter some new risks if this metric gets too high.

The Key Takeaway

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 57% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for Monro that we think you should be aware of.

While Monro may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.