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Investors Rekindle Their Love for Duration? Leveraged Long-Maturity Treasury ETF Surges Nearly 50% Since October Low

Investors Rekindle Their Love for Duration? Leveraged Long-Maturity Treasury ETF Surges Nearly 50% Since October Low

投資者重燃長久的熱愛?槓桿式長期國債ETF自10月份低點以來飆升近50%
moomoo資訊 ·  2023/12/13 07:35  · ETF

Several leveraged long-maturity treasury ETFs have seen price surge, although it's only a "small" rebound compared to nearly 90% decline since 2020. For example, the $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$, has doubled in size net inflows of $2.5 billion in six months, and prices have risen 50% from their October lows, and $Proshares Trust Proshares Ultra 20+Yr Treasury (UBT.US)$ has increased by 31% since October. The US treasury market hasn't seen such a favorable month since the Ronald Reagan era.

幾隻槓桿式長期國債ETF的價格飆升,儘管與2020年以來下跌了近90%相比,這只是 “小幅的” 反彈。例如, $3倍做多20年期以上國債ETF-Direxion (TMF.US)$,在六個月內淨流入規模翻了一番,達到25億美元,價格已從10月份的低點上漲了50%,而且 $ProShares Ultra 20年期以上國債 (UBT.US)$ 自10月份以來增長了31%。自羅納德·里根時代以來,美國國債市場從未出現過如此有利的月份。

Recently, a series of economic data were perceived as strong signals that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. This optimism fueled demand for long-dated Treasuries, driving the price of the long-dated bond ETFs higher, including the leveraged ETFs and non-leveraged ETFs.

最近,一系列經濟數據被視爲美聯儲已完成加息的有力信號。這種樂觀情緒推動了對長期國債的需求,推動了包括槓桿ETF和非槓桿ETF在內的長期債券ETF的價格上漲。

Exhibit: Non-Leveraged ETFs
Exhibit: Non-Leveraged ETFs
展品:非槓桿ETF
Exhibit: Leveraged ETFs
Exhibit: Leveraged ETFs
展品:槓桿交易所買賣基金

Why do yield changes cause bigger movements in bond prices?

爲什麼收益率變化會導致債券價格的更大波動?

The bullish appetite makes sense with the help of investing math. If yields on 20-year Treasuries hovering near 5%, a drop of 50 basis points would deliver a total return of more than 11% over the next 12 months, according to data from F/m Investments. On the flip side, a 50 basis point rise would only result in a loss of about 1.1%.

在投資數學的幫助下,看漲的胃口是有道理的。F/m Investments的數據顯示,如果20年期國債收益率徘徊在5%附近,則下降50個點子將在未來12個月內帶來超過11%的總回報。另一方面,上漲50個點子只會導致約1.1%的損失。

“The risk-reward for duration is extraordinarily favorable right now and it’s just the bond math,” Karissa McDonough, fixed income strategist at Nottingham Trust, said. “If you have just a slight decrease in yields from here for the 10-year, we can talk about a double-digit total return in long bonds and we haven’t seen that in literally years.”

諾丁漢信託基金固定收益策略師卡麗莎·麥克唐納表示:“目前,長期風險回報非常有利,這只是債券的數學運算。”“如果你在10年內收益率略有下降,我們可以說多頭債券的總回報率爲兩位數,而實際上幾年來我們從未見過這種情況。”

While the entire Treasury curve benefits from a decrease in yields, the long end’s higher duration — a measure of a security’s sensitivity to interest-rate changes — would provide significant gains for investors.

儘管整個美國國債曲線都受益於收益率的下降,但較長的期限——衡量證券對利率變化的敏感度——將爲投資者帶來可觀的收益。

How to look ahead to 2024?

如何展望2024年?

There are only two instances in history, 1955-1956 and 1958-1959, where U.S. Treasury bonds fell in price for two consecutive years. Bond prices have risen 100% of the time in the year following two consecutive years of negative returns since 1928. The question that remains is just how positive the bond market could be next year. 

歷史上只有兩個例子,即1955-1956年和1958-1959年,美國國債價格連續兩年下跌。自1928年以來連續兩年出現負回報之後,債券價格今年以來上漲了100%。仍然存在的問題是,明年債券市場會有多樂觀。

Many factors, particularly inflation and the growth rate of the U.S. economy, will determine the degree of any price appreciation seen for bonds in 2024. With a soft landing, or slower growth but no recession, bond prices may not appreciate much beyond their 2023 year-end range. But a recession could force the Fed’s hand to lower interest rates, swiftly pushing bond prices higher.

許多因素,尤其是通貨膨脹和美國經濟的增長率,將決定2024年債券價格的升值程度。由於軟着陸,或者增長放緩但沒有衰退,債券價格在2023年年底區間之外可能不會升值太多。但經濟衰退可能迫使美聯儲降低利率,迅速推高債券價格。

Risk Disclosure:

風險披露:

These types of ETFs can be helpful for investors looking for ways to magnify their returns on their bond investments, but they also carry a higher level of risk.

這些類型的交易所買賣基金可以幫助投資者尋找擴大債券投資回報的方法,但它們也具有更高的風險。

It's important to note that leveraged ETFs are designed to achieve their stated leverage daily and may not be suitable for all investors, as the compounding effect of the daily leverage can cause the ETF to deviate significantly from its stated leverage over time.

值得注意的是,槓桿ETF旨在每天達到其規定的槓桿率,可能不適合所有投資者,因爲隨着時間的推移,每日槓桿率的複合效應可能導致ETF與其規定的槓桿率顯著偏離。

Arguably, buyers of bond ETFs today are probably getting a worse deal than those who bought at the end of October.

可以說,今天債券ETF的買家可能比10月底買入的買家獲得的交易更差。

Besides, as the market has been particularly optimistic about the decline in inflation recently, the Fed may avoid talking too much about cutting interest rates next year in the upcoming FOMC meeting, pouring a bucket of cold water on the market. JP Morgan chief economist Michael Feroli noted, ”We think Powell will try to move the conversation away from the timing of the first ease.” With the press conference skewing hawkish, the Fed may push back against the idea that rate cuts could come anytime soon, making bets on the bond market risky in the short term.

此外,由於最近市場對通貨膨脹率的下降特別樂觀,美聯儲可能會避免在即將舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會會議上過多地談論明年的降息,給市場澆一桶冷水。摩根大通首席經濟學家邁克爾·費羅利指出:“我們認爲鮑威爾將努力將談話從第一次放鬆的時機上移開。”由於新聞發佈會偏向鷹派,美聯儲可能會反對可能很快降息的觀點,這使得短期內對債券市場的押注存在風險。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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