Noel Gifts International Ltd (SGX:543) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 40% share price jump in the last month. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 41% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in Singapore's Specialty Retail industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.7x, you may consider Noel Gifts International as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.5x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

View our latest analysis for Noel Gifts International

How Noel Gifts International Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Noel Gifts International's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Noel Gifts International's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 10% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 6.8% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Noel Gifts International's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Noel Gifts International's P/S

Noel Gifts International shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Noel Gifts International currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Noel Gifts International.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.