With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 34x in China, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Avicopter Plc's (SHSE:600038) P/E ratio of 36x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Avicopter certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings will be less resilient moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
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Is There Some Growth For Avicopter?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Avicopter would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 84% last year. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 6.3% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 0.4% as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 44% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we find it concerning that Avicopter is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
The Final Word
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Avicopter currently trades on a higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Avicopter with six simple checks.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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