Computime Group Limited (HKG:320) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last month. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 12% in the last twelve months.
After such a large jump in price, Computime Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.3x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
For instance, Computime Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Computime Group
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Computime Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Computime Group would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 63%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
In light of this, it's alarming that Computime Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Computime Group shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Computime Group revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Having said that, be aware Computime Group is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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