December Jobs Report: Do Economists See Cooling Signals Or Steady Growth?
December Jobs Report: Do Economists See Cooling Signals Or Steady Growth?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' December jobs report released Friday generated varied reactions from economists and financial analysts.
勞工統計局週五發佈的12月就業報告引起了經濟學家和金融分析師的不同反應。
With non-farm payrolls (NFPs) growing by 216,000 and surpassing expectations, wage growth advancing more than expected and unemployment holding steady at 3.7%, experts are decoding what this means for the economy and the markets.
隨着非農就業人數(NFP)增長21.6萬人,超出預期,工資增長超過預期,失業率穩定在3.7%,專家們正在解讀這對經濟和市場意味着什麼。
Chart: Pace Of Job Creation Surges In December 2023
圖表:2023 年 12 月創造就業機會的步伐激增
![](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240106/0-21f25fde33c3d237d1d41b474971407d-0-966eb4c946a307365e73de0af07feb72.png/big)
Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist, Bank of America: Gapen observed a "gradual cooling in the labor market," suggesting a trend towards a soft landing rather than a recession.
He noted, "Nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations with a 216,00 increase. However, there were net downward revisions of 71,000 to the prior two months."
Gapen's analysis pointed to a decrease in the three-month average change in nonfarm payrolls, indicating a slowdown in job growth.
美國銀行首席美國經濟學家邁克爾·加彭:加彭觀察到 “勞動力市場逐漸降溫”,這表明呈軟着陸而不是衰退的趨勢。
他指出:“非農就業人數超出預期,增長了216,00人。但是,與前兩個月相比,淨向下修正了71,000個。”
加彭的分析表明,非農就業人數的三個月平均變化有所下降,這表明就業增長放緩。
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist, LPL Financial: Roach highlighted a concerning trend, stating, "The ratio of part-timers to full-timers spiked in December, now above the pre-pandemic rate." He also pointed out the downward revisions in payroll gains, a sign of slowing economic growth.
However, Roach believed "the recent uptick in average hourly earnings is not enough for the Fed to alter its policy plans in the upcoming months."
LPL Financial首席經濟學家傑弗裏·羅奇:羅奇強調了一個令人擔憂的趨勢,他說:“12月兼職人員與全職人員的比例激增,目前已超過疫情前的水平。”他還指出,工資增長向下修正,這表明經濟增長放緩。
但是,羅奇認爲 “最近平均時薪的上升不足以讓美聯儲在未來幾個月內改變其政策計劃。”
Chris Todd, CEO, UKG: Offering a more optimistic view, Todd said, "Employees still have the upper hand, and that advantage is here to stay for the foreseeable future."
UKG首席執行官克里斯·託德:託德提供了更爲樂觀的觀點,他說:“員工仍然佔上風,這種優勢在可預見的將來將繼續存在。”
He emphasized the challenges for employers in the current labor market and noted "our real-time workforce activity data shows strength and consistency." Todd's positive outlook is bolstered by moderating inflation and steady wages.
他強調了僱主在當前勞動力市場中面臨的挑戰,並指出 “我們的實時勞動力活動數據顯示出力量和一致性。”通貨膨脹放緩和和的工資支撐了託德的樂觀前景。
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor Alliance: Zaccarelli expressed surprise at the job market's resilience, saying, "The fact that 216,000 net jobs were added — shows that the labor market is still really hot."
He warned that high average hourly earnings could add to inflationary pressures. Zaccarelli also believed a strong economy would lead to higher revenues and profits for companies, which in turn would bolster stock prices. According to Zaccarelli, calling the end of this bull market was highly exaggerated.
獨立顧問聯盟首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利:扎卡雷利對就業市場的彈性表示驚訝,他說:“淨增加21.6萬個工作崗位這一事實表明勞動力市場仍然非常炎熱。”
他警告說,較高的平均小時收入可能會增加通貨膨脹壓力。扎卡雷利還認爲,強勁的經濟將爲公司帶來更高的收入和利潤,這反過來將提振股價。根據扎卡雷利的說法,稱這場牛市的結束被誇大了。
Jeremy Straub, CEO and chief investment officer, Coastal Wealth: Straub's analysis suggested the robust jobs report could delay the Fed's rate cuts. He stated, "Clearly, the economy is strong enough as of now to withstand the Fed's currently elevated interest rates."
海岸財富首席執行官兼首席投資官傑里米·斯特勞布:斯特勞布的分析表明,強勁的就業報告可能會推遲美聯儲的降息。他說:“顯然,到目前爲止,經濟足夠強勁,足以承受美聯儲目前的高利率。”
Straub expected the stock market to remain range-bound in the short term due to typical profit-taking after recent rallies.
斯特勞布預計,由於近期漲勢後出現典型的獲利回吐,股市將在短期內保持區間波動。
Market reactions: Friday session saw U.S. Treasury yields moving higher with the 10-year benchmark reaching 4.05% yield. Longer-dated 30-year yields surged to 4.20%.
市場反應:週五交易日美國國債收益率走高,10年期基準收益率達到4.05%。長期的30年期國債收益率飆升至4.20%。
In response, bond-related ETFs took a hit. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) tumbled 1%, while the US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN) fell 0.4%.
作爲回應,與債券相關的ETF受到了打擊。廣受歡迎的iShares 20年期以上國債ETF(納斯達克股票代碼:TLT)下跌了1%,而美國國債10年期國債ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:UTEN)下跌0.4%。
Read Now: Interest Rates Unlikely To Fall Soon: Bond Guru Projects 10-Year Yields Spiking To 5.5% In 2024
立即閱讀: 利率不太可能很快下降:債券大師預計10年期收益率將在2024年飆升至5.5%
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