There wouldn't be many who think Crane Company's (NYSE:CR) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.6x is worth a mention when the median P/E in the United States is similar at about 17x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
Crane certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to deteriorate like the rest, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Crane's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 109% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 5,583% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 6.5% each year as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 12% growth per year, that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Crane's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
The Bottom Line On Crane's P/E
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Crane's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Crane you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Crane, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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