Singapore Home Rents Fall for First Time in Over Three Years
Singapore Home Rents Fall for First Time in Over Three Years
(Jan 26): Singapore rents dropped for the first time in more than three years, giving respite to tenants on the back of increased housing supply and expectations for an economic slowdown.
(1月26日):新加坡租金三年多來首次下降,在住房供應增加和經濟放緩預期的背景下,租戶得以喘息。
An index of rents for private homes in the financial hub fell 2.1% in the fourth quarter compared with a 0.8% rise in the previous three months. That's the first decline since the third quarter of 2020, according to figures published Friday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority. It's also the steepest drop since the wake of the global financial crisis in 2009.
金融中心私人住宅租金指數在第四季度下降了2.1%,而前三個月的增長率爲0.8%。根據城市重建局週五公佈的數據,這是自2020年第三季度以來的首次下降。這也是自2009年全球金融危機以來的最大跌幅。
The decrease, which was spread across all market segments, comes after a significant ramp-up of supply amid a surge in housing costs. About 21,300 private residential units were completed last year, the most since 2016 and more than twice the number in 2022, according to the URA.
下降遍及所有細分市場,是在住房成本飆升的情況下供應大幅增加之後發生的。根據市建局的數據,去年約有21,300套私人住宅單位竣工,爲2016年以來的最高水平,是2022年的兩倍多。
"With the increased competition, landlords are more willing to accept lower prices, especially for luxury segments," said Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at real estate agency OrangeTee Group. Tenants are also more open to looking for cheaper options in suburban areas, she added.
房地產經紀公司OrangeTee集團首席研究員兼策略師克里斯汀·孫表示:“隨着競爭的加劇,房東更願意接受較低的價格,尤其是奢侈品細分市場。”她補充說,租戶也更願意在郊區尋找更便宜的選擇。
An influx of wealth during the pandemic helped the city-state defy a downturn seen in other hubs like Hong Kong, but also triggered local discontent and ensuing government cooling measures.
疫情期間的財富湧入幫助這個城市國家克服了香港等其他樞紐的衰退,但也引發了當地的不滿情緒和隨之而來的政府降溫措施。
Despite the latest cooldown, private residential rents still grew 8.7% last year.
儘管最近出現了冷卻期,但去年私人住宅租金仍增長了8.7%。
Local demand from buyers has also propped up home prices, which rose 2.8% in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, bringing the annual increase to 6.8%, according to data on Friday.
週五的數據顯示,買家的當地需求也支撐了房價,第四季度房價較前三個月上漲了2.8%,使年漲幅達到6.8%。
Still, demand has moderated. The pace of home price increases slowed for a second consecutive year, while sales of private residences — including secondhand — fell to the lowest in seven years.
儘管如此,需求有所放緩。房價上漲步伐連續第二年放緩,而私人住宅(包括二手住宅)的銷售降至七年來的最低水平。
The first two residential launches of 2024 saw "subdued take-up" rates of 17-30%, according to a note this week by Citigroup Inc. analyst Brandon Lee. That compares with an overall 46% for projects last year, the report said.
花旗集團分析師布蘭登·李本週的一份報告顯示,2024年的前兩次住宅發佈的 “低迷使用率” 爲17-30%。報告稱,相比之下,去年項目的總體比例爲46%。
Developers are also becoming more cautious. A recent sale of two land parcels by the government attracted muted interest, with one near the city's Gardens by the Bay receiving a single S$770 million (US$574 million) bid, nearly 30% lower on a per-square-foot basis than another plot in the vicinity sold last year.
開發人員也變得更加謹慎。政府最近出售的兩塊地塊吸引了人們的興趣,其中一塊靠近城市濱海灣花園的地塊獲得了7.7億新元(合5.74億美元)的單一出價,按每平方英尺計算,比去年出售的附近另一塊地塊低了近30%。
Analysts are divided on the outlook for rents and prices this year. Most expect private residential rents to drop, with Bloomberg Intelligence estimating a decline of as much as 10% on high vacancy rates and economic headwinds. But OrangeTee's Sun still sees rents increasing 2-5% due to reduced housing supply entering the market this year.
分析師對今年的租金和價格前景存在分歧。大多數人預計私人住宅租金將下降,彭博情報估計,由於高空置率和經濟不利因素,將下降多達10%。但是OrangeTee的太陽報仍然認爲,由於今年進入市場的住房供應減少,租金將增長2-5%。
At the same time, Morgan Stanley is predicting a 3% drop in residential prices, while Citigroup expects a 4-5% gain. Bloomberg Intelligence sees prices moving sideways with some downside risk.
同時,摩根士丹利預測住宅價格將下降3%,而花旗集團預計將上漲4-5%。彭博情報認爲,價格橫盤整理,存在一些下行風險。