Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical (SZSE:002749) the Stock Advances 6.4%, Bringing Five-year Gains to 74%
Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical (SZSE:002749) the Stock Advances 6.4%, Bringing Five-year Gains to 74%
When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. To wit, the Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical share price has climbed 59% in five years, easily topping the market return of 22% (ignoring dividends).
當我們投資時,我們通常是在尋找表現超過市場平均水平的股票。收購被低估的企業是獲得超額回報的一種途徑。換句話說,四川國光農化股價在五年內上漲了59%,輕鬆超過了22%的市場回報率(不計股息)。
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
在過去一週強勁上漲之後,值得一看的是長期回報是否是由基本面改善推動的。
Check out our latest analysis for Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical
查看我們對四川國光農化的最新分析
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
引用巴菲特的話說:“船隻將在世界各地航行,但Flat Earth Society將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大差異...”研究市場情緒如何隨着時間的推移而變化的一種方法是研究公司股價與其每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。
During five years of share price growth, Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical actually saw its EPS drop 3.5% per year.
在五年的股價增長中,四川國光農化實際每股收益每年下降3.5%。
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
通過瀏覽這些數字,我們可以假設每股收益的下降並不能代表業務多年來的變化。由於每股收益的變化似乎與股價的變化無關,因此值得一看其他指標。
The modest 1.4% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 16% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
1.4%的適度股息收益率不太可能支撐股價。另一方面,四川國光農化收入增長良好,在過去五年中複合增長率爲16%。目前,管理層很有可能將收入增長置於每股收益增長之上。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
公司的收入和收益(隨着時間的推移)如下圖所示(點擊查看確切數字)。
If you are thinking of buying or selling Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
如果您想買入或賣出四川國光農化股票,則應在其資產負債表上查看這份免費的詳細報告。
What About Dividends?
分紅呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical's TSR for the last 5 years was 74%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的股東總回報率和股價回報率。基於股息再投資的假設,股東總回報率納入了任何分拆或貼現資本籌集的價值以及任何股息。可以說,股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。碰巧的是,四川國光農化過去5年的股東總回報率爲74%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。因此,該公司支付的股息提高了 總 股東回報。
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
It's good to see that Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 57% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 12% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical that you should be aware of.
很高興看到四川國光農化在過去十二個月中向股東提供了57%的總股東回報率。這確實包括股息。這比五年來12%的年化回報率要好,這意味着該公司最近的表現更好。持樂觀態度的人可能會將最近股東總回報率的改善視爲業務本身隨着時間的推移而變得更好。長期跟蹤股價表現總是很有意思的。但是,要更好地了解四川國光農化,我們需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,我們已經確定了四川國光農化的一個警告信號,你應該注意這一點。
Of course Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
當然,四川國光農化可能不是最好的買入股票。因此,您可能希望看到這批免費的成長股。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。