Is Yunnan Tourism (SZSE:002059) A Risky Investment?
Is Yunnan Tourism (SZSE:002059) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Yunnan Tourism Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002059) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。我們注意到,雲南旅遊股份有限公司(SZSE:002059)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務會帶來什麼風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務可以爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。資本主義的重要組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 的過程,在這個過程中,倒閉的企業將被銀行家無情地清算。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常會看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人強迫他們以不利的價格籌集資金。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可能是一個非常好的工具。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將現金和債務放在一起看。
Check out our latest analysis for Yunnan Tourism
查看我們對雲南旅遊業的最新分析
What Is Yunnan Tourism's Net Debt?
雲南旅遊的淨負債是多少?
As you can see below, Yunnan Tourism had CN¥973.6m of debt at September 2023, down from CN¥1.09b a year prior. However, it does have CN¥915.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥57.7m.
如下所示,截至2023年9月,雲南旅遊的債務爲9.736億元人民幣,低於去年同期的10.9億元人民幣。但是,它確實有9.159億元的現金抵消了這一點,淨負債約爲5,770萬元人民幣。
How Healthy Is Yunnan Tourism's Balance Sheet?
雲南旅遊的資產負債表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Yunnan Tourism had liabilities of CN¥1.78b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥911.5m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥915.9m as well as receivables valued at CN¥432.6m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥1.34b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看出,雲南旅遊局在12個月內到期的負債爲17.8億元人民幣,之後到期的負債爲9.115億元人民幣。除了這些債務外,它還有9.159億元的現金以及價值4.326億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出13.4億元人民幣。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Yunnan Tourism has a market capitalization of CN¥4.96b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. Carrying virtually no net debt, Yunnan Tourism has a very light debt load indeed. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Yunnan Tourism will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
儘管這可能看起來很多,但還不錯,因爲雲南旅遊的市值爲49.6億元人民幣,因此如果需要,它可能會通過籌集資金來強化資產負債表。但是,仍然值得仔細研究其償還債務的能力。雲南旅遊業幾乎沒有淨負債,債務負擔確實很輕。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲雲南旅遊需要收入來償還債務。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。
In the last year Yunnan Tourism had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 51%, to CN¥435m. To be frank that doesn't bode well.
去年,雲南旅遊業在利息和稅前出現虧損,收入實際上減少了51%,至4.35億元人民幣。坦率地說,這並不是一個好兆頭。
Caveat Emptor
Caveat Emptor
Not only did Yunnan Tourism's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). To be specific the EBIT loss came in at CN¥366m. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. However, it doesn't help that it burned through CN¥25m of cash over the last year. So suffice it to say we do consider the stock to be risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Yunnan Tourism you should know about.
在過去的十二個月中,雲南旅遊業不僅收入下滑,而且還產生了負的息稅前收益(EBIT)。具體而言,息稅前利潤虧損爲3.66億元人民幣。考慮到除了上述負債外,我們對公司應該使用如此多的債務沒有太大的信心。坦率地說,我們認爲資產負債表遠非匹配,儘管可以隨着時間的推移而改善。但是,去年它消耗了2500萬加元的現金,這無濟於事。因此,只要說我們確實認爲這隻股票有風險就足夠了。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現了一個你應該知道的雲南旅遊警告標誌。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼請立即查看我們的獨家淨現金增長股票清單。
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