If you're looking at a mature business that's past the growth phase, what are some of the underlying trends that pop up?  A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining.  Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets.  Having said that, after a brief look, Kennametal (NYSE:KMT) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.  

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business.  To calculate this metric for Kennametal, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.095 = US$199m ÷ (US$2.5b - US$420m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Therefore, Kennametal has an ROCE of 9.5%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Machinery industry average of 12%.  

Check out our latest analysis for Kennametal

NYSE:KMT Return on Capital Employed January 31st 2024

In the above chart we have measured Kennametal's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important.  If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

So How Is Kennametal's ROCE Trending?

In terms of Kennametal's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence.  About  five years ago, returns on capital were 16%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above.  On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady.  Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last  five years.   So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Kennametal becoming one if things continue as they have.  

The Key Takeaway

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock.      Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 24% from where it was  five years ago.   With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.  

One more thing to note, we've identified   1 warning sign with Kennametal and understanding it should be part of your investment process.  

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.