Clearfield, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLFD) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Revenues of US$34m were better than expected, some 15% ahead of forecasts. The company still lost a statutory US$0.35 per share, although the losses were 16% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering Clearfield is for revenues of US$146.5m in 2024. This implies a substantial 33% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$1.06 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$152.2m and losses of US$0.81 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$33.50, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Clearfield, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$47.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 41% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 31% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Clearfield's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$33.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Clearfield going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Clearfield (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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