The Jiangsu CoWin Biotech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688426) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 37%. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 52% share price decline.

Even after such a large drop in price, Jiangsu CoWin Biotech may still be sending sell signals at present with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 7.7x, when you consider almost half of the companies in the Biotechs industry in China have P/S ratios under 6.2x and even P/S lower than 3x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

How Has Jiangsu CoWin Biotech Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Jiangsu CoWin Biotech's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Jiangsu CoWin Biotech's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 45% decrease to the company's top line. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 18% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 814% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Jiangsu CoWin Biotech's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Jiangsu CoWin Biotech's P/S remain high even after its stock plunged. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Jiangsu CoWin Biotech revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Jiangsu CoWin Biotech (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.