If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Although, when we looked at China Railway Construction (SHSE:601186), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on China Railway Construction is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.072 = CN¥47b ÷ (CN¥1.7t - CN¥1.0t) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Thus, China Railway Construction has an ROCE of 7.2%. On its own that's a low return on capital but it's in line with the industry's average returns of 6.8%.

In the above chart we have measured China Railway Construction's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

When we looked at the ROCE trend at China Railway Construction, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 7.2% from 9.0% five years ago. However it looks like China Railway Construction might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.

On a separate but related note, it's important to know that China Railway Construction has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 61%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.

What We Can Learn From China Railway Construction's ROCE

To conclude, we've found that China Railway Construction is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. Unsurprisingly then, the total return to shareholders over the last five years has been flat. All in all, the inherent trends aren't typical of multi-baggers, so if that's what you're after, we think you might have more luck elsewhere.

China Railway Construction does come with some risks though, we found 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

While China Railway Construction isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.