The Five-year Underlying Earnings Growth at Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time
The Five-year Underlying Earnings Growth at Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ:HTBK) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time
Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Heritage Commerce Corp (NASDAQ:HTBK) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 38% over a half decade. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 33% in the last year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 14% in a month. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.
理想情況下,您的整體投資組合應超過市場平均水平。但是,即使是最好的選股者也只能通過以下方式獲勝 一些 選擇。因此,我們不會指責Heritage Commerce Corp(納斯達克股票代碼:HTBK)的長期股東對他們的持股決定表示懷疑,該股在五年內下跌了38%。而且,受傷害的不僅僅是長揸者,因爲該股去年下跌了33%。最近,股價在一個月內又下跌了14%。重要的是,這可能是市場對最近公佈的財務業績的反應。你可以在我們的公司報告中查看最新的數字。
With the stock having lost 8.9% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
由於該股在過去一週下跌了8.9%,值得一看業務表現,看看是否有任何危險信號。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映了投資者的情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的業務表現。通過比較每股收益(EPS)和一段時間內的股價變化,我們可以了解投資者對公司的態度是如何隨着時間的推移而變化的。
While the share price declined over five years, Heritage Commerce actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 4.3% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
儘管股價在五年內下跌,但Heritage Commerce實際上設法做到了 增加 每股收益平均每年增長4.3%。鑑於股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑每股收益並不能很好地指導該期間的業務表現(可能是由於一次性的虧損或收益)。或者,過去的增長預期可能不合理。
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
通過瀏覽這些數字,我們可以假設五年前,市場對更高的增長抱有預期。看看其他指標可能會更好地解釋股價的變化。
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
我們注意到股息一直保持健康,因此這並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。我們目前尚不清楚爲什麼股價下跌,但進一步的研究可能會提供一些答案。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
下圖顯示了收入和收入隨時間推移的跟蹤情況(如果您點擊圖片,可以看到更多細節)。
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240206/0-1e84991befe9b3b0e09fe2f6067df5de-0-dda69a862878a5b7dd1ec2afc9acc0dc.png/big)
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Heritage Commerce
我們認爲,內部人士在去年進行了大量收購,這是積極的。即便如此,未來的收益對於當前股東是否賺錢將更爲重要。這份顯示分析師預測的免費報告應該可以幫助您對Heritage Commerce形成看法
What About Dividends?
分紅呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Heritage Commerce, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
除了衡量股價回報率外,投資者還應考慮股東總回報率(TSR)。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法,它考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資)以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。可以公平地說,股東總回報率爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。就Heritage Commerce而言,在過去的5年中,其股東總回報率爲-21%。這超過了我們之前提到的其股價回報率。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
While the broader market gained around 18% in the last year, Heritage Commerce shareholders lost 29% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 4% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Heritage Commerce that you should be aware of before investing here.
儘管去年整體市場上漲了約18%,但Heritage Commerce的股東損失了29%(甚至包括股息)。但是,請記住,即使是最好的股票有時也會在十二個月內表現不如市場。遺憾的是,去年的業績結束了糟糕的表現,股東在五年內每年面臨4%的總虧損。總的來說,長期股價疲軟可能是一個壞兆頭,儘管逆勢投資者可能希望研究該股以期出現轉機。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,我們發現了Heritage Commerce的1個警告信號,在這裏投資之前,你應該注意這個信號。
Heritage Commerce is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Heritage Commerce並不是內部人士唯一買入的股票。因此,看看這份免費的內幕收購成長型公司名單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。