We Think ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE:ZIM) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE:ZIM) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (NYSE:ZIM) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 “永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是,ZIM綜合航運服務有限公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:ZIM)確實有債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務會帶來什麼風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所獲。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司爲了控制債務,必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is ZIM Integrated Shipping Services's Net Debt?
ZIM 綜合航運服務的淨負債是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that ZIM Integrated Shipping Services had US$127.4m of debt in September 2023, down from US$239.9m, one year before. But it also has US$1.83b in cash to offset that, meaning it has US$1.70b net cash.
您可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示ZIM綜合航運服務在2023年9月的債務爲1.274億美元,低於一年前的2.399億美元。但它也有18.3億美元的現金可以抵消這一點,這意味着它的淨現金爲17.0億美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240213/0-ff3327f1dbea7d0d25bd8f2fe4a3ab2c-0-208f6323efd55398b1faa3dd90080ce4.png/big)
How Strong Is ZIM Integrated Shipping Services' Balance Sheet?
ZIM綜合航運服務的資產負債表有多強?
According to the last reported balance sheet, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services had liabilities of US$2.54b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$3.08b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$1.83b in cash and US$644.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$3.15b.
根據上次報告的資產負債表,ZIM綜合航運服務的負債爲25.4億美元,12個月後到期的負債爲30.8億美元。與此相抵消的是,它有18.3億美元的現金和6.443億美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額31.5億美元。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$1.43b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. ZIM Integrated Shipping Services boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load, even if it does have very significant liabilities, in total.
這裏的缺陷嚴重影響了這家價值14.3億美元的公司本身,就好像一個孩子在裝滿書本、運動裝備和喇叭的巨大揹包的重壓下掙扎一樣。因此,我們絕對認爲股東需要密切關注這個問題。畢竟,如果ZIM必須在今天向債權人付款,則可能需要進行大規模的資本重組。ZIM Integrated Shipping Services擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,即使確實有非常巨額的負債,它的總債務負擔也不會很大。
Shareholders should be aware that ZIM Integrated Shipping Services's EBIT was down 98% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if ZIM Integrated Shipping Services can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
股東應該意識到,ZIM綜合航運服務的息稅前利潤去年下降了98%。如果這種下降持續下去,那麼償還債務將比在素食大會上出售鵝肝更難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定ZIM綜合航運服務能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While ZIM Integrated Shipping Services has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 100% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。儘管ZIM Integrated Shipping Services的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得一看其將利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度有多快。在過去的三年中,ZIM綜合航運服務記錄的自由現金流相當於其息稅前利潤的100%,比我們通常預期的要強。如果需要的話,這有利於償還債務。
Summing Up
總結
Although ZIM Integrated Shipping Services's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of US$1.70b. And it impressed us with free cash flow of US$1.8b, being 100% of its EBIT. Despite the cash, we do find ZIM Integrated Shipping Services's level of total liabilities concerning, so we're not particularly comfortable with the stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with ZIM Integrated Shipping Services .
儘管由於負債總額,ZIM綜合航運服務的資產負債表並不是特別強勁,但其淨現金爲17.0億美元,顯然是樂觀的。它以18億美元的自由現金流給我們留下了深刻的印象,佔其息稅前利潤的100%。儘管有現金,但我們確實認爲ZIM Integrated Shipping Services的總負債水平令人擔憂,因此我們對股票並不特別滿意。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。爲此,您應該注意我們在ZIM綜合運輸服務中發現的1個警告標誌。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。