Is Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd (SHSE:600635) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd (SHSE:600635) Using Too Much Debt?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group) Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600635) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
大衛·伊本說得好,他說:“波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。”當你檢查公司的資產負債表的風險時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲企業倒閉時通常會涉及債務。我們可以看到,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司, Ltd.(上海證券交易所股票代碼:600635)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?
When Is Debt A Problem?
債務何時會成爲問題?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。資本主義的重要組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到負債累累的公司會永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款機構迫使他們以不利的價格籌集資金。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可以成爲一個非常好的工具。當我們研究債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd's Debt?
上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司的債務是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd had CN¥8.21b in debt in September 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it does have CN¥3.18b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥5.03b.
您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖表顯示,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司在2023年9月的債務爲82.1億元人民幣;與前一年大致相同。但是,它確實有31.8億加元的現金抵消了這一點,淨負債約爲50.3億元人民幣。
A Look At Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd's Liabilities
看看上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司的負債
The latest balance sheet data shows that Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd had liabilities of CN¥8.02b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥5.11b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.18b in cash and CN¥418.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥9.53b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司的負債爲80.2億元人民幣,之後到期的負債爲51.1億元人民幣。與此相抵消的是,它有31.8億元的現金和4.182億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總額高出95.3億元人民幣。
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's CN¥7.64b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
當你考慮到這一缺口超過了公司76.4億元人民幣的市值時,你很可能會傾向於仔細審查資產負債表。在公司必須迅速清理資產負債表的情況下,股東似乎可能會遭受大規模稀釋。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。這樣,我們既考慮債務的絕對數量,也考慮爲債務支付的利率。
As it happens Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.5 but very strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Also relevant is that Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 23% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
碰巧的是,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率相當令人擔憂,爲8.5,但利息覆蓋率非常高,爲1k。因此,要麼它有機會獲得非常便宜的長期債務,要麼利息支出將增加!同樣相關的是,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司去年其息稅前利潤增長了可觀的23%,從而增強了其償還債務的能力。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司需要收益來償還債務。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 95% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司產生的自由現金流相當於其息稅前利潤的95%,超出了我們的預期。如果需要的話,這有利於償還債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd's net debt to EBITDA was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. It's also worth noting that Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd is in the Gas Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Considering this range of data points, we think Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group)Ltd has 4 warning signs (and 3 which are significant) we think you should know about.
儘管我們考慮的其他因素要好得多,但根據該分析,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司的淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比例確實爲負數。毫無疑問,它用息稅前利潤支付利息支出的能力相當閃爍。還值得注意的是,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司屬於燃氣公用事業行業,人們通常認爲該行業具有很強的防禦性。考慮到這一系列數據點,我們認爲上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司處於管理其債務水平的有利地位。話雖如此,負擔足夠沉重,我們建議所有股東密切關注。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,上海大衆公用事業(集團)有限公司有 4 個警示標誌(以及 3 個重要標誌),我們認爲你應該知道。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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