What Happens If Government Shutdown Can't Be Avoided?
What Happens If Government Shutdown Can't Be Avoided?
As the U.S. government again faces a partial shutdown, President Joe Biden is calling on Congress to approve $1.6 trillion in funding for federal agencies by Friday.
隨着美國政府再次面臨部分關閉,喬·拜登總統呼籲國會在週五之前批准爲聯邦機構提供1.6萬億美元的資金。
If lawmakers can't agree on the spending package or a further extension, government departments could shut down as early as this weekend, and would shut down further next Friday. Here is the timeline of a two step possible shutdown and how it might affect markets.
如果立法者無法就一攬子支出計劃或進一步延期達成協議,政府部門最早可能在本週末關閉,並將在下週五進一步關閉。以下是可能的兩步停擺的時間表以及它將如何影響市場。
March 1: Transportation, Housing and Food Safety departments would see funding expire.
3月1日:交通、住房和食品安全部門的資金將到期。
According to USA Facts, around 44% of the 2023 federal transportation and infrastructure spending budget was for highway transportation, including repairs to roads and civil engineering structures such as bridges.
根據美國事實,2023年聯邦交通和基礎設施支出預算中約有44%用於公路運輸,包括道路和橋樑等土木工程結構的維修。
Meanwhile, 23% was for air travel — particularly infrastructure and jobs such as air traffic control and security screeners. While full-time qualified controllers and security personnel would be required to work, training would cease, leaving both understaffed.
同時,23%用於航空旅行,尤其是基礎設施和工作,例如空中交通管制和安全檢查人員。雖然需要全職的合格控制員和安保人員工作,但培訓將停止,使兩者人手不足。
This could have a major impact on air travel, with cancellations inevitable if required maintenance and air traffic control staff are unable to work.
這可能會對航空旅行產生重大影響,如果所需的維護和空中交通管制人員無法工作,則不可避免地會取消。
Cancellations would hurt stocks such as $Southwest Airlines (LUV.US)$, which has so far enjoyed a 20% gain in 2024, while $American Airlines (AAL.US)$ has gained 12% and $United Airlines (UAL.US)$ has climbed 11%. Much of the rest is spent on rail infrastructure and subsidies, which come from the Federal Transit Administration, which could be affected.
取消會損害股票,例如 $西南航空 (LUV.US)$,到目前爲止,該公司在2024年已上漲20%,而 $美國航空 (AAL.US)$ 上漲了12%,$聯合大陸航空 (UAL.US)$ 已經上漲了11%。其餘大部分用於鐵路基礎設施和補貼,這些資金來自聯邦運輸管理局,這可能會受到影響。
Rail freight operators such as the $Union Pacific (UNP.US)$ could be disrupted, which could also mean problems for companies down the supply chain.
鐵路貨運運營商,例如 $聯合太平洋 (UNP.US)$ 可能會中斷,這也可能給供應鏈下游的公司帶來麻煩。
The $Ishares Transportation Averageetf (IYT.US)$, an exchange-traded transport that tracks the S&P 500 transportation sub-index, was down 0.3% on Monday at $280.29.
這個 $運輸指數ETF-iShares (IYT.US)$追蹤標準普爾500指數運輸分項指數的交易所交易運輸工具週一下跌0.3%,至280.29美元。
![](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240227/0-f645d14ae394c8185c1382bbda510e06-0-6201323cd22247a4c590c2033c765ed2.png/big)
The House Freedom Caucus, meanwhile, is a group of nearly 40 Republicans lobbying for highly conservative policies such as ending funding to drive growth in the use of electric vehicles. Would $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, which is already suffering a sales slump, see further losses in growth for its products?
與此同時,衆議院自由核心小組由近40名共和黨人組成,他們遊說採取高度保守的政策,例如終止爲推動電動汽車使用增長而提供的資金。會 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$,已經遭受銷售下滑的困擾,其產品的增長會進一步下降嗎?
Some citizens could suffer as grants for public housing aid come under threat, however, the bulk of mortgage and rental-paying home dwellers would be unaffected.
由於公共住房援助補助金受到威脅,一些公民可能會遭受損失,但是,大部分抵押貸款和支付租金的住房居民將不會受到影響。
But payments to companies and workers employed on contracts building new public housing could be affected.
但是,向根據合同建造新公共住房的公司和工人支付的款項可能會受到影響。
March 8: Defense, Legal, National Parks and Science departments would see funding expire.
3月8日:國防、法律、國家公園和科學部門的資金將到期。
Military personnel would be required to continue working. Federal justice agencies such as the FBI and CIA would also stay on duty, as would Border Patrol and immigration services. But federal courts would be affected, meaning a backlog in hearings would build up.
軍事人員必須繼續工作。聯邦調查局和中央情報局等聯邦司法機構也將繼續值班,邊境巡邏和移民局也將繼續值班。但是聯邦法院將受到影響,這意味着聽證會將積壓。
Many federal science research institutes, however, would be disrupted, as could government grants for research. Many regulatory bodies would be suspended — apart from those that deal with human safety issues. The Securities and Exchange Commission, for example, would see most of its activities suspended.
但是,許多聯邦科學研究機構將受到干擾,政府的研究撥款也將中斷。許多監管機構將被停職——處理人類安全問題的監管機構除外。例如,證券交易委員會的大部分活動將暫停。