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Is Bohai Automotive Systems (SHSE:600960) A Risky Investment?

Is Bohai Automotive Systems (SHSE:600960) A Risky Investment?

渤海汽車系統(上海證券交易所股票代碼:600960)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  02/27 23:15

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Bohai Automotive Systems CO., LTD. (SHSE:600960) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。與許多其他公司一樣,渤海汽車系統有限公司(SHSE: 600960) 使用債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

When Is Debt A Problem?

債務何時會成爲問題?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

當企業無法通過自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會變得有風險。在最壞的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東才能控制債務。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理其債務,而且對自己有利。考慮公司的債務水平的第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。

What Is Bohai Automotive Systems's Net Debt?

渤海汽車系統的淨負債是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Bohai Automotive Systems had debt of CN¥1.67b, up from CN¥1.48b in one year. However, it also had CN¥819.9m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥854.5m.

您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖片顯示,截至2023年9月,渤海汽車系統的債務爲16.7億元人民幣,高於一年內的14.8億元人民幣。但是,它也有8.19億元的現金,因此其淨負債爲8.545億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600960 Debt to Equity History February 28th 2024
SHSE: 600960 2024 年 2 月 28 日債務與股權比率的歷史記錄

How Strong Is Bohai Automotive Systems' Balance Sheet?

渤海汽車系統的資產負債表有多強?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Bohai Automotive Systems had liabilities of CN¥2.31b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥637.5m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥819.9m in cash and CN¥1.51b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥613.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,渤海汽車系統的負債爲23.1億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲6.375億元人民幣。與此相抵消的是,它有8.19億元的現金和151億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額爲6.139億元人民幣,比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出6.139億元人民幣。

Given Bohai Automotive Systems has a market capitalization of CN¥3.72b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Bohai Automotive Systems will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

鑑於渤海汽車系統的市值爲37.2億元人民幣,很難相信這些負債會構成很大的威脅。話雖如此,很明顯,我們應該繼續監控其資產負債表,以免情況惡化。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲渤海汽車系統需要收益來償還債務。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。

Over 12 months, Bohai Automotive Systems reported revenue of CN¥4.6b, which is a gain of 15%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. We usually like to see faster growth from unprofitable companies, but each to their own.

在過去的12個月中,渤海汽車系統公佈的收入爲46億元人民幣,增長了15%,儘管它沒有報告任何利息和稅前收益。我們通常希望看到無利可圖的公司實現更快的增長,但每家公司都有自己的發展。

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Importantly, Bohai Automotive Systems had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at CN¥105m. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. We would feel better if it turned its trailing twelve month loss of CN¥117m into a profit. So we do think this stock is quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Bohai Automotive Systems you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

重要的是,渤海汽車系統去年出現了息稅前收益(EBIT)虧損。具體而言,息稅前利潤虧損爲1.05億元人民幣。當我們審視這一點並回顧其資產負債表上相對於現金的負債時,對我們來說,公司有任何債務似乎是不明智的。坦率地說,我們認爲資產負債表遠非匹配,儘管可以隨着時間的推移而改善。如果它將過去十二個月的1.17億元的虧損轉化爲利潤,我們會感覺更好。因此,我們確實認爲這隻股票風險很大。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。一個很好的例子:我們發現了兩個你應該注意的渤海汽車系統的警告標誌,其中一個有點不愉快。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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