U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.6% If They Invested Three Years Ago
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.6% If They Invested Three Years Ago
Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) shareholders, since the share price is down 19% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 23%.
許多投資者將成功的投資定義爲長期超過市場平均水平。但是,如果你嘗試選股,你的風險回報低於市場。不幸的是,美國銀行公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:USB)的長期股東就是這種情況,因爲股價在過去三年中下跌了19%,遠低於約23%的市場回報率。
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
因此,讓我們來看看公司的長期表現是否與基礎業務的進展一致。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
儘管一些人繼續教導高效市場假說,但事實證明,市場是反應過度的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。考慮市場對公司的看法發生了怎樣的變化的一種不完美但簡單的方法是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, U.S. Bancorp actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 1.9% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
在不幸的三年股價下跌中,美國銀行的每股收益(EPS)實際上每年增長1.9%。鑑於股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑每股收益並不能很好地指導該期間的業務表現(可能是由於一次性的虧損或收益)。否則,該公司過去曾被過度炒作,因此其增長令人失望。
It's pretty reasonable to suspect the market was previously to bullish on the stock, and has since moderated expectations. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
可以合理地懷疑市場此前曾看漲該股,此後預期有所緩和。研究其他指標可能會更好地解釋股價的變化。
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. We like that U.S. Bancorp has actually grown its revenue over the last three years. But it's not clear to us why the share price is down. It might be worth diving deeper into the fundamentals, lest an opportunity goes begging.
我們注意到,股息似乎足夠健康,因此這可能無法解釋股價下跌的原因。我們喜歡美國銀行在過去三年中的收入實際上有所增長。但是我們不清楚爲什麼股價下跌。可能值得深入研究基本面,以免機會流失。
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
您可以在下圖中看到收入和收入隨時間推移而發生的變化(點擊圖表查看確切值)。
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240229/0-b8d2b20b067f4cb74f4aaf3cdc02ef97-0-71d30932d9462934aaebc0c79dbb62ce.png/big)
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on U.S. Bancorp
我們認爲,內部人士在去年進行了大量收購,這是積極的。即便如此,未來的收益對於當前股東是否賺錢將更爲重要。這份顯示分析師預測的免費報告應該可以幫助您對美國銀行形成看法
What About Dividends?
分紅呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of U.S. Bancorp, it has a TSR of -8.6% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除了衡量股價回報率外,投資者還應考慮股東總回報率(TSR)。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法,它考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資)以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。可以說,股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。就美國銀行而言,在過去三年中,其股東回報率爲-8.6%。這超過了我們之前提到的其股價回報率。因此,該公司支付的股息提高了 總 股東回報。
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
While the broader market gained around 28% in the last year, U.S. Bancorp shareholders lost 8.0% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.3% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - U.S. Bancorp has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
儘管去年整體市場上漲了約28%,但美國Bancorp的股東損失了8.0%(甚至包括股息)。即使是優質股票的股價有時也會下跌,但我們希望在過於感興趣之前看到企業基本指標的改善。不幸的是,去年的表現可能預示着尚未解決的挑戰,因爲它比過去五年0.3%的年化虧損還要糟糕。總的來說,長期股價疲軟可能是一個壞兆頭,儘管逆勢投資者可能希望研究該股以期出現轉機。儘管市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。例如,冒險吧——美國銀行有1個我們認爲你應該注意的警告信號。
U.S. Bancorp is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
美國銀行並不是內部人士唯一買入的股票。因此,看看這份免費的內幕收購成長型公司名單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。