Palomar Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLMR) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last month. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 24% is also fairly reasonable.
After such a large jump in price, Palomar Holdings may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.7x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Palomar Holdings certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
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Does Growth Match The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Palomar Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 54% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 1,166% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 18% each year during the coming three years according to the eight analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that Palomar Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Final Word
The large bounce in Palomar Holdings' shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
As we suspected, our examination of Palomar Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Palomar Holdings that we have uncovered.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Palomar Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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