Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Heilongjiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605577)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Heilongjiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605577)
Key Insights
關鍵見解
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Heilongjiang Publishing & Media fair value estimate is CN¥19.39
- With CN¥20.56 share price, Heilongjiang Publishing & Media appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Industry average of 478% suggests Heilongjiang Publishing & Media's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value
- 使用兩階段股權自由現金流,黑龍江出版傳媒公允價值估計爲19.39元人民幣
- 黑龍江出版傳媒的股價爲20.56元人民幣,其交易價格似乎接近其估計的公允價值
- 行業平均水平爲478%,這表明黑龍江出版傳媒的同行目前的交易價格高於公允價值
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Heilongjiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605577) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
今天,我們將簡單介紹一種估值方法,該方法用於估算黑龍江出版傳媒股份有限公司(SHSE: 605577)作爲投資機會的吸引力,方法是採用預期的未來現金流並將其折現爲現值。我們的分析將採用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。不要被行話嚇跑,它背後的數學其實很簡單。
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我們普遍認爲,公司的價值是其未來將產生的所有現金的現值。但是,差價合約只是衆多估值指標中的一個,而且並非沒有缺陷。如果您想了解有關折扣現金流的更多信息,可以在Simply Wall St分析模型中詳細了解此計算背後的理由。
Is Heilongjiang Publishing & Media Fairly Valued?
黑龍江出版傳媒估值合理嗎?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們使用的是兩階段增長模型,這只是意味着我們考慮了公司增長的兩個階段。在初始階段,公司的增長率可能更高,而第二階段通常被認爲具有穩定的增長率。首先,我們必須估算出未來十年的現金流。鑑於我們沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們從公司上次公佈的價值中推斷了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩其萎縮速度,而自由現金流不斷增長的公司在此期間的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期增長的放緩幅度往往比後來的幾年更大。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
差價合約就是關於未來一美元的價值低於今天一美元的概念,因此我們將這些未來現金流的價值折現爲以今天的美元計算的估計價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 估計
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥403.4m | CN¥418.1m | CN¥432.4m | CN¥446.6m | CN¥460.8m | CN¥475.2m | CN¥489.7m | CN¥504.5m | CN¥519.6m | CN¥535.1m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 3.94% | Est @ 3.64% | Est @ 3.43% | Est @ 3.28% | Est @ 3.18% | Est @ 3.11% | Est @ 3.06% | Est @ 3.02% | Est @ 3.00% | Est @ 2.98% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7% | CN¥375 | CN¥360 | CN¥346 | CN¥332 | CN¥318 | CN¥304 | CN¥291 | CN¥278 | CN¥266 | CN¥255 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿FCF(人民幣,百萬) | CN¥4.034 億 | 4.181 億元人民幣 | 4.324億元人民幣 | 4.466 億元人民幣 | 4.60.8 億元人民幣 | CN¥475.2 萬 | 4.897 億元人民幣 | 504.5 萬元人民幣 | 5.196 億元人民幣 | 5.351 億元人民幣 |
增長率估算來源 | Est @ 3.94% | Est @ 3.64% | Est @ 3.43% | Est @ 3.28% | 東部時間 @ 3.18% | 東部時間 @ 3.11% | Est @ 3.06% | 東部時間 @ 3.02% | Est @ 3.00% | 東部標準時間 @ 2.98% |
現值(人民幣,百萬)折現 @ 7.7% | CN¥375 | CN¥360 | CN¥346 | 人民幣332 | CN¥318 | CN¥304 | CN¥291 | CN¥278 | CN¥266 | CN¥255 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.1b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10年期現金流(PVCF)的現值 = 31億元人民幣
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.
我們現在需要計算終值,該終值涵蓋了這十年之後的所有未來現金流量。出於多種原因,使用的增長率非常保守,不能超過一個國家的GDP增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用10年期國債收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)來估計未來的增長。與10年 “增長” 期一樣,我們使用7.7%的股本成本將未來的現金流折現爲今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥535m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.9%) = CN¥12b
終端價值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 5.35億元人民幣× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.7% — 2.9%) = 120億人民幣
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥12b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= CN¥5.5b
終端價值的現值 (PVTV) = 電視/ (1 + r)10= 120億元人民幣÷ (1 + 7.7%)10= cn¥5.5b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥8.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥20.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
因此,總價值或權益價值是未來現金流現值的總和,在本例中爲86億元人民幣。爲了得出每股內在價值,我們將其除以已發行股票總數。與目前20.6元人民幣的股價相比,該公司在撰寫本文時的價格接近公允價值。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生重大影響,因此最好將其視爲粗略的估計,而不是精確到最後一美分。
The Assumptions
假設
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Heilongjiang Publishing & Media as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.847. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
現在,貼現現金流的最重要輸入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,那就自己計算一下,試一試假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將黑龍江出版傳媒視爲潛在股東,因此使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了7.7%,這是基於0.847的槓桿測試版。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Moving On:
繼續前進:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Heilongjiang Publishing & Media, we've compiled three pertinent aspects you should consider:
雖然重要,但DCF的計算只是公司需要評估的衆多因素之一。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。相反,它應該被視爲 “需要哪些假設才能低估/高估這隻股票的價值?” 的指南例如,如果稍微調整終值增長率,則可能會極大地改變整體結果。對於黑龍江出版傳媒,我們整理了你應該考慮的三個相關方面:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Heilongjiang Publishing & Media , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 風險:舉例來說,投資風險的幽靈無處不在。我們已經向黑龍江出版傳媒確定了1個警告信號,我們知道這應該是您投資過程的一部分。
- 其他穩健的業務:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強大業務的基礎。爲什麼不瀏覽我們具有堅實業務基礎的股票互動清單,看看是否還有其他你可能沒有考慮過的公司!
- 其他環保公司:擔心環境並認爲消費者會越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們正在考慮更綠色未來的公司的互動名單,發現一些你可能沒有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都會更新每隻中國股票的差價合約計算結果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,請在此處搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。