Grove Collaborative Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:GROV) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 32% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 12% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Grove Collaborative Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.4x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

What Does Grove Collaborative Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Grove Collaborative Holdings' revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Grove Collaborative Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 18%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 25% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 6.7% over the next year. With the industry predicted to deliver 4.5% growth, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this in consideration, we think it doesn't make sense that Grove Collaborative Holdings' P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Grove Collaborative Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our check of Grove Collaborative Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. With this in mind, we don't feel the current P/S is justified as declining revenues are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If the poor revenue outlook tells us one thing, it's that these current price levels could be unsustainable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Grove Collaborative Holdings that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Grove Collaborative Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.