February 'Hot' Inflation Report Could Spark Market's Next Big Sell-Off, Warns Fundstrat's Tom Lee: 'Stocks Could See Selling Pressure'
February 'Hot' Inflation Report Could Spark Market's Next Big Sell-Off, Warns Fundstrat's Tom Lee: 'Stocks Could See Selling Pressure'
The stock market could be on the verge of a significant shift, with a crucial inflation report potentially triggering the next major sell-off, according to Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat.
Fundstrat研究主管湯姆·李表示，股市可能處於重大轉變的邊緣，一份重要的通貨膨脹報告可能會引發下一次重大拋售。
What Happened: The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Mar. 12, could be a turning point for the market in 2024, reported Business Insider. The report will indicate whether the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates.
發生了什麼：據《商業內幕》報道，定於3月12日發佈的2月消費者價格指數（CPI）報告可能是2024年市場的轉折點。該報告將表明聯儲局是否可能降息。
"To us, this is also the decision point for markets in 2024. If the Feb CPI is 'hot,' even if for statistically wrong reasons, we think markets could become anxious," said Lee.
“對我們來說，這也是2024年市場的決策點。如果2月份的消費者價格指數'很熱'，即使出於統計學上的錯誤原因，我們也認爲市場可能會變得焦慮，” 李說。
The February inflation report follows a January CPI report that was hotter than expected. Lee pointed out that some of the seasonal factors that drive up prices in January could spill over into February.
2月份的通貨膨脹報告是在1月份的消費者價格指數報告之後發佈的，該報告比預期的要高。李指出，推動1月份價格上漲的一些季節性因素可能會蔓延到2月。
Should the February CPI report come in higher than anticipated, it could put the Fed in a difficult position and lead to a more hawkish stance from the central bank. This could potentially trigger the most significant sell-off in the stock market since its record rally began in late October.
如果2月份的消費者價格指數報告高於預期，則可能使聯儲局陷入困境，並導致央行採取更加鷹派的立場。這可能會引發自10月下旬股市創紀錄的漲勢以來最嚴重的拋售。
"It seems like the Fed cannot ignore the optical issue of two CPI prints that appear to be breaking the downtrend. Thus, it seems like stocks could see selling pressure on the heels of this," Lee said.
“看來聯儲局不能忽視兩份消費者價格指數的視覺問題，這兩份數據似乎正在打破下跌趨勢。因此，在此之後，股票似乎可能會出現拋售壓力，” 李說。
Lee has suggested that the S&P 500 could experience a 7% sell-off in early 2024, which would send the index down to 4,777, around the stock market's previous record highs.
李表示，標準普爾500指數可能在2024年初經歷7％的拋售，這將使該指數跌至4,777點，接近股市之前的歷史新高。
Why It Matters: The stock market has been showing remarkable resilience in 2024, with inflation easing and the Federal Reserve less worried about the robust U.S. job market, as highlighted by Lee in a previous report. This could be the first major challenge to the market's strength.
爲何重要：正如李在先前的一份報告中強調的那樣，2024年股市表現出顯著的彈性，通貨膨脹放鬆，聯儲局對強勁的美國就業市場的擔憂也減少了。這可能是市場實力面臨的第一個重大挑戰。
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024, citing the uncertain economic outlook and the need for cautious movement.
同時，聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾暗示有可能在2024年降息，理由是經濟前景不確定，需要採取謹慎的行動。
The European Central Bank (ECB) also lowered its inflation forecasts while maintaining interest rates, in line with the Federal Reserve's cautious approach.
歐洲中央銀行（ECB）也下調了通脹預期，同時維持了利率，這符合聯儲局的謹慎態度。
On the other hand, Tom Lee has also been bullish on Bitcoin's future, predicting a rise to $150,000 before the end of the year.
另一方面，湯姆·李也一直看好比特幣的未來，預計到年底將升至150,000美元。
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