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Haitong Securities (SHSE:600837) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 27% If They Invested Five Years Ago

Haitong Securities (SHSE:600837) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 27% If They Invested Five Years Ago

海通證券(SHSE: 600837)如果投資者在五年前進行投資,他們將蒙受27%的損失
Simply Wall St ·  2024/03/11 13:28

For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600837) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 34% over a half decade.

對於許多人來說,投資的要點是產生比整個市場更高的回報。但是在任何投資組合中,個股之間的結果都會好壞參半。因此,我們不會責怪海通證券有限公司(SHSE: 600837)的長期股東懷疑他們的持股決定,該股在五年內下跌了34%。

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

值得評估的是,該公司的經濟狀況是否與這些令人難以置信的股東回報步調一致,或者兩者之間是否存在一些差距。所以我們就這麼做吧。

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

儘管一些人繼續教導高效市場假說,但事實證明,市場是反應過度的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。研究市場情緒如何隨着時間的推移而變化的一種方法是研究公司股價與其每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。

During the five years over which the share price declined, Haitong Securities' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 6.8% each year. This change in EPS is reasonably close to the 8% average annual decrease in the share price. This suggests that market participants have not changed their view of the company all that much. Rather, the share price change has reflected changes in earnings per share.

在股價下跌的五年中,海通證券的每股收益(EPS)每年下降6.8%。每股收益的變化相當接近股價年均下降8%。這表明市場參與者對公司的看法並沒有太大改變。相反,股價變化反映了每股收益的變化。

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

下圖顯示了 EPS 在一段時間內的跟蹤情況(如果你點擊圖片,你可以看到更多細節)。

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:600837 Earnings Per Share Growth March 11th 2024
SHSE: 600837 每股收益增長 2024 年 3 月 11 日

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Haitong Securities' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

我們很高興地向大家報告,首席執行官的薪酬比資本相似公司的大多數首席執行官要低得多。但是,儘管首席執行官的薪酬總是值得檢查的,但真正重要的問題是公司未來能否增加收益。如果你想進一步調查海通證券的收益、收入和現金流,這份關於海通證券收益、收入和現金流的免費互動報告是一個很好的起點。

What About Dividends?

分紅呢?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Haitong Securities' TSR for the last 5 years was -27%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的股東總回報率和股價回報率。基於股息再投資的假設,股東總回報率納入了任何分拆或貼現資本籌集的價值以及任何股息。可以說,股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。碰巧的是,海通證券過去5年的股東總回報率爲-27%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧是沒有好處的!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

It's nice to see that Haitong Securities shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 4.2% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 5% per year over the last half decade. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Haitong Securities that you should be aware of before investing here.

很高興看到海通證券股東去年獲得了 4.2% 的股東總回報率。這包括股息。這無疑超過了過去五年中每年約5%的損失。這使我們有點警惕,但該企業可能已經扭轉了命運。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,我們發現了海通證券的三個警告信號,在投資海通證券之前,您應該注意這些信號。

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

如果你想看看另一家公司——一家財務狀況可能優異的公司——那麼千萬不要錯過這份已經證明自己可以增加收益的公司的免費名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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