Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 9.9%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 9.9%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600282) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.4% short of analyst estimates at CN¥73b, and statutory earnings of CN¥0.34 per share missed forecasts by 9.9%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
南京鋼鐵股份有限公司(SHSE: 600282)剛剛發佈了最新的年度報告,但情況並不樂觀。業績似乎有些負面——收入比分析師預期的730億元人民幣低4.4%,每股0.34元人民幣的法定收益比預期低9.9%。對於投資者來說,盈利是一個重要時刻,因爲他們可以追蹤公司的業績,查看分析師對明年的預測,看看對公司的情緒是否發生了變化。我們認爲,讀者會發現分析師對明年最新(法定)業績後的預測很有趣。
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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nanjing Iron & Steel from four analysts is for revenues of CN¥77.8b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 7.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 10% to CN¥0.38. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥81.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.45 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
考慮到最新業績,四位分析師對南京鋼鐵的最新共識是,2024年的收入爲778億元人民幣。如果得到滿足,這意味着其收入在過去12個月中增長了7.3%。每股收益預計將增長10%,至0.38元人民幣。在本報告發布之前,分析師一直在模擬2024年的收入爲817億元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲0.45元人民幣。在最近的業績公佈後,分析師似乎不那麼樂觀,他們下調了收入預期,並實際削減了每股收益數字。
The average price target climbed 14% to CN¥5.13despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes.
儘管盈利預期有所下調,但平均目標股價仍攀升了14%,至5.13元人民幣,這表明一旦股價過關,這種收益影響可能會對該股產生積極影響。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nanjing Iron & Steel's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nanjing Iron & Steel.
從現在的大局來看,我們可以理解這些預測的方法之一是看看它們如何與過去的業績和行業增長預期相比較。很明顯,預計南京鋼鐵的收入增長將大幅放緩,預計到2024年底的收入按年計算將增長7.3%。相比之下,過去五年的歷史增長率爲12%。相比之下,該行業中其他有分析師報道的公司的收入預計將以每年11%的速度增長。因此,很明顯,儘管收入增長預計將放緩,但整個行業的增長速度預計也將超過南京鋼鐵公司。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nanjing Iron & Steel. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
最大的擔憂是,分析師下調了每股收益預期,這表明南京鋼鐵可能會面臨業務不利因素。不幸的是,他們還下調了收入預期,我們的數據顯示,與整個行業相比,表現不佳。即便如此,每股收益對業務的內在價值更爲重要。我們注意到目標股價已上調,這表明分析師認爲該業務的內在價值可能會隨着時間的推移而提高。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Nanjing Iron & Steel analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
話雖如此,公司收益的長期軌跡比明年重要得多。根據多位南京鋼鐵分析師的估計,到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nanjing Iron & Steel you should know about.
那風險呢?每家公司都有它們,我們發現了一個你應該知道的南京鋼鐵警告標誌。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。