Vail Resorts, Inc. Just Missed Revenue By 6.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Vail Resorts, Inc. Just Missed Revenue By 6.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) just released its latest second-quarter report and things are not looking great. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 6.5% short of analyst estimates at US$1.1b, and statutory earnings of US$5.76 per share missed forecasts by 3.8%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
韋爾度假村公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:MTN)剛剛發佈了最新的第二季度報告,但情況看起來並不樂觀。業績似乎有些負面——收入比分析師預期的11億美元低6.5%,每股5.76美元的法定收益比預期低3.8%。分析師通常會在每份收益報告中更新他們的預測,我們可以從他們的估計中判斷他們對公司的看法是否發生了變化,或者是否有任何新的問題需要注意。因此,我們收集了最新的業績後預測,以了解估計對明年的預測。
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After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Vail Resorts are now predicting revenues of US$2.93b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 23% to US$7.80. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.98 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
根據最新業績,涵蓋韋爾度假村的九位分析師現在預測2024年的收入爲29.3億美元。如果得到滿足,這將反映出與過去12個月相比收入增長了3.1%的令人滿意的增長。預計每股法定收益將飆升23%,至7.80美元。然而,在最新業績公佈之前,分析師曾預計2024年的收入爲30.5億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲8.98美元。在最近的業績公佈後,分析師似乎不那麼樂觀,他們下調了收入預期,並實際削減了每股收益數字。
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.8% to US$243. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vail Resorts analyst has a price target of US$272 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$201. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
因此,得知分析師已將目標股價下調5.8%至243美元也就不足爲奇了。但是,還有另一種思考價格目標的方法,那就是研究分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲範圍廣泛的估計可能表明,對業務可能的結果有不同的看法。最樂觀的韋爾度假村分析師將目標股價定爲每股272美元,而最悲觀的分析師則將其估值爲201美元。儘管如此,由於估計範圍如此之窄,這表明分析師對他們認爲該公司的價值有了很好的了解。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.3% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.6% per year. So although Vail Resorts is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
從現在的大局來看,我們可以理解這些預測的方法之一是看看它們如何與過去的業績和行業增長預期相比較。分析師表示,截至2024年底將帶來更多相同的情況,收入按年計算預計將增長6.4%。這與其在過去五年中7.3%的年增長率一致。相比之下,我們的數據表明,預計類似行業的其他公司(有分析師報道)的收入每年將增長9.6%。因此,儘管預計韋爾度假村將保持其收入增長率,但預計其增長速度將低於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
要了解的最重要的一點是,分析師下調了每股收益的預期,這表明公佈這些業績後,市場情緒明顯下降。不利的一面是,他們還下調了收入預期,預測表明他們的表現將比整個行業差。此外,分析師還下調了目標股價,這表明最新消息加劇了人們對業務內在價值的悲觀情緒。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vail Resorts. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Vail Resorts analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考慮到這一點,我們不會很快就韋爾度假村得出結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤重要得多。根據多位Vail Resorts分析師的估計,到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Vail Resorts that you need to take into consideration.
還值得注意的是,我們發現了韋爾度假村的3個警告信號,你需要考慮。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。