Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get New Hope Dairy (SZSE:002946) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Five Years
Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get New Hope Dairy (SZSE:002946) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Five Years
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002946), since the last five years saw the share price fall 44%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 33% in the last year.
爲了證明選擇個股的努力是合理的,值得努力超過市場指數基金的回報。但是在任何投資組合中,個股之間的結果都會好壞參半。目前,一些股東可能會質疑他們對新希望乳業有限公司(SZSE:002946)的投資,因爲在過去五年中,股價下跌了44%。一些最近的買家可能也感到擔憂,該股去年下跌了33%。
While the stock has risen 4.9% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
儘管該股在過去一週上漲了4.9%,但長期股東仍處於虧損狀態,但讓我們看看基本面能告訴我們什麼。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
儘管一些人繼續教導高效市場假說,但事實證明,市場是反應過度的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。考慮市場對公司的看法發生了怎樣的變化的一種不完美但簡單的方法是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, New Hope Dairy actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 11% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
在股價下滑的不幸五年中,新希望乳業的每股收益(EPS)實際上每年增長11%。鑑於股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑每股收益並不能很好地指導該期間的業務表現(可能是由於一次性的虧損或收益)。或者,市場此前可能非常樂觀,因此儘管每股收益有所改善,但該股還是令人失望。
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
由於每股收益增長與股價下跌之間缺乏相關性,值得一看其他指標,以了解股價走勢。
We don't think that the 0.8% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 18% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.
我們認爲0.8%不是影響股價的重要因素,因爲隨着股息的增加,它相當小。與股價形成鮮明對比的是,在五年期間,收入實際上每年增長18%。對收入和收益進行更詳細的審查可能會也可能無法解釋股價下跌的原因;可能有機會。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下圖描述了收入和收入隨時間推移而發生的變化(點擊圖片即可顯示確切的數值)。
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240317/0-1c1daf6f5ad201b5ce247511d58d7a60-0-4dae8d96dc8e4e92ac82d4254b3b7824.png/big)
We know that New Hope Dairy has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
我們知道新希望乳業最近提高了利潤,但是未來會發生什麼?因此,我們建議您查看這份顯示共識預測的免費報告
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
We regret to report that New Hope Dairy shareholders are down 33% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 11%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with New Hope Dairy .
我們遺憾地報告,新希望乳業的股東今年下跌了33%(甚至包括股息)。不幸的是,這比整個市場11%的跌幅還要嚴重。話雖如此,在下跌的市場中,一些股票不可避免地會被超賣。關鍵是要密切關注基本發展。不幸的是,去年的表現可能預示着尚未解決的挑戰,因爲它比過去五年中7%的年化虧損還要糟糕。我們意識到羅斯柴爾德男爵曾說過,投資者應該 “在街頭流血時買入”,但我們警告說,投資者應首先確保他們購買的是高質量的企業。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。爲此,你應該注意我們在新希望乳業發現的兩個警告信號。
But note: New Hope Dairy may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
但請注意:新希望乳業可能不是最好的買入股票。因此,來看看這份過去盈利增長(以及進一步增長預測)的有趣公司的免費清單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。