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We Think Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies (SHSE:600498) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies (SHSE:600498) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認爲Fiberhome電信科技(SHSE: 600498)正在冒一些債務風險
Simply Wall St ·  03/18 18:23

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600498) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”當你檢查公司的資產負債表的風險時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲企業倒閉時通常會涉及債務。與許多其他公司一樣,Fiberhome電信技術有限公司(SHSE:600498)也使用債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

當企業無法通過自由現金流或以誘人的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會成爲風險。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

How Much Debt Does Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Carry?

Fiberhome電信技術揹負了多少債務?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies had debt of CN¥9.22b, up from CN¥8.80b in one year. However, it also had CN¥3.10b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥6.12b.

您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖片顯示,截至2023年9月,Fiberhome電信科技的債務爲92.2億元人民幣,高於一年內的880億元人民幣。但是,它也有31.0億元的現金,因此其淨負債爲61.2億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600498 Debt to Equity History March 18th 2024
SHSE: 600498 2024 年 3 月 18 日債務與股權比率的歷史記錄

How Healthy Is Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies' Balance Sheet?

Fiberhome 電信科技公司的資產負債表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies had liabilities of CN¥23.8b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥4.11b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥3.10b and CN¥15.6b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥9.16b.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,Fiberhome電信科技的負債爲238億元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲41.1億元人民幣。另一方面,它有一年內到期的現金爲310億元人民幣,還有價值156億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額91.6億元人民幣。

Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies has a market capitalization of CN¥24.1b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

Fiberhome電信科技的市值爲241億元人民幣,因此,如果有需要,它很可能會籌集資金以改善其資產負債表。但是,仍然值得仔細研究其償還債務的能力。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(包括淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。

Strangely Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.1, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 1k. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. It is well worth noting that Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 50% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

奇怪的是,Fiberhome電信科技的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率很高,爲5.1,這意味着債務很高,但利息覆蓋率高達1k。這意味着,除非公司能夠獲得非常便宜的債務,否則利息支出將來可能會增加。值得注意的是,Fiberhome電信科技的息稅前利潤像雨後竹子一樣飆升,在過去十二個月中增長了50%。這將使其更容易管理債務。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定Fiberhome電信技術未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,值得檢查一下息稅前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的三年中,Fiberhome電信技術消耗了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況將在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更大。

Our View

我們的觀點

While Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and EBIT growth rate were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies that you should be aware of before investing here.

儘管Fiberhome電信科技將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流讓我們感到緊張。順便說一句,其利息覆蓋率和息稅前利潤增長率都是令人鼓舞的跡象。從上面提到的所有角度來看,在我們看來,由於Fiberhome電信技術公司的債務,確實是一項風險較大的投資。並非所有風險都是壞的,因爲如果得到回報,它可以提高股價回報,但是這種債務風險值得牢記。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們發現了Fiberhome電信技術的一個警告信號,在投資這裏之前,您應該注意這一點。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼請立即查看我們的獨家淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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