When Will Federal Reserve Cut Rates? Crypto Bettors See 52% Chance By This Date
When Will Federal Reserve Cut Rates? Crypto Bettors See 52% Chance By This Date
Investors and analysts are closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for the first of several rate cuts that were said to be coming in 2024.
投資者和分析師正在密切關注聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）週二和週三的會議，據說可能在2024年進行多次降息，這是首次降息。
What Happened: The Federal Reserve hinted at three rate cuts for 2024, which would follow two years that saw the federal funds rate raised by more than 10 times.
發生了什麼：聯儲局暗示將在2024年進行三次降息，接下來的兩年中，聯邦基金利率將提高10倍以上。
Higher than expected inflation in February may lead to a delay in cutting rates until later in 2024.
2月份的通貨膨脹率高於預期，可能導致降息推遲到2024年晚些時候。
Most economists are now predicting that the Federal Reserve will keep the rates unchanged at the March meeting and most likely at the May meeting.
大多數經濟學家現在預測，聯儲局將在3月份的會議上以及很可能在5月的會議上保持利率不變。
The key question mark is on the June FOMC meeting where financial experts are now mixed on if this will mark the first Fed rate cut in years.
關鍵問號在於6月的聯邦公開市場委員會會議，金融專家現在對這是否標誌着聯儲局多年來首次降息的看法喜憂參半。
Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips still sees rate cuts coming in 2024, but cuts the estimate from four down to three.
高盛經濟學家亞歷克·菲利普斯仍預計將在2024年降息，但將預期從四次下調至三次。
"We now expect three cuts in 2024 in June, September and December versus four previously, mainly because of the slightly higher inflation path," Phillips said.
菲利普斯說：“我們現在預計2024年將在6月、9月和12月進行三次降息，而之前爲四次，這主要是由於通貨膨脹路徑略有上升。”
The economist cites recent inflation trends and uncertainty as a reason the rate cuts could come later than originally anticipated.
這位經濟學家指出，最近的通貨膨脹趨勢和不確定性是降息可能晚於最初預期的原因。
Related Link: Fed Officials Confident Inflation Is Easing, But Want More Evidence Before Cutting Rates
相關鏈接：聯儲局官員相信通貨膨脹正在緩解，但在降息之前需要更多證據
Crypto Bettors Make Their Prediction: Crypto prediction market Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science.
加密博彩玩家做出預測：加密預測市場Polymarket提供政治、中東、體育、加密貨幣、流行文化、商業和科學等類別的投注。
A prediction market for when the first-rate cut from the Federal Reserve will take place has attracted over $3.1 million in wagers.
對聯儲局何時進行一流降息的預測市場吸引了超過310萬美元的賭注。
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon (CRYPTO: MATTIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or from crypto accounts on Coinbase, Robinhood or PayPal, according to the company's guides.
根據該公司的指南，在Polymarket上，用戶使用USDC（加密貨幣：USDC）向Polygon（加密貨幣：USDC）存款，並且可以在以太坊（加密貨幣：ETH）或從Coinbase、Robinhood或PayPal的加密賬戶存款。
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option(s) that ends up being the winner.
每個投注市場以1美元兌現最終成爲贏家的期權。
The current market for "Fed Rate Cut By...?" has the following options with the percent odds of happening listed.
“聯儲局降息...？” 的當前市場有以下選項，其中列出了發生概率的百分比。
- March 20: 1%
- May 1: 10%
- June 12: 52%
- July 31: 78%
- Sept. 18: 89%
- Nov. 7: 90%
- Dec. 18: 93%
- 3 月 20 日：1%
- 5 月 1 日：10%
- 6 月 12 日：52%
- 7 月 31 日：78%
- 9 月 18 日：89%
- 11 月 7 日：90%
- 12 月 18 日：93%
The highest wagered market is surprisingly March 20 with $1.8 million bet on either yes or no. With odds of around 1%, the market is listed at around one cent, meaning if the Fed surprises and does cut rates, bettors backing yes would see a massive win paying out $1.
出人意料的是，投注額最高的市場是3月20日，有180萬美元下注是或否。該市場的賠率約爲1％，上市價格約爲1美分，這意味着如果聯儲局出人意料並確實降息，支持 “是” 的博彩玩家將看到一個巨大的勝利，支付1美元。
The May date has around $898,000 wagered and June has $307,000, making the first three dates the three leading markets.
5月份的投注額約爲89.8萬美元，6月份的下注額爲30.7萬美元，這使得前三個日期成爲三個主要市場。
Over 50% of bettors see a rate cut happening by June 12. For this market, all the wagers will cash out that happen after the date of the first-rate cut.
超過50％的博彩玩家認爲降息將在6月12日之前發生。對於這個市場，所有在一流降息之日之後發生的賭注都將兌現。
Based on comments from economists and the crypto betting market, June is currently the heavy favorite to see the first-rate cut. Comments from the Federal Reserve this week could change that outlook.
根據經濟學家和加密博彩市場的評論，6月份目前是一流降息的重中之重。聯儲局本週的評論可能會改變這種前景。
Image: Flickr
圖片：Flickr